Abstract-If global photovoltaics (PV) deployment grows rapidly, the required input materials need to be supplied at an increasing rate. We quantify the effect of PV deployment levels on the scale of annual metals production. If a thin-film PV technology accounts for 25% of electricity generation in 2030, the annual production of thin-film PV metals would need to grow at rates of 15-30% per year. These rates exceed those observed historically for a wide range of metals. In contrast, for the same level of crystalline silicon PV deployment, the required silicon production growth rate falls within the historical range.Index Terms-gallium, indium, photovoltaics, thin-film photovoltaics, tellurium. These energy scenarios project future PV deployment levels based on varied assumptions about the determinants of energy demand and the technology outlook. Other studies have explored the extent of PV deployment that is possible under certain metal constraints such as annual metal production levels or reserves [11]-[13]. These studies have also considered the potential for decreasing the material intensity of PV technologies.
I. INTRODUCTIONIn this paper, we provide a new perspective by putting the projected PV metal requirements into a historical context. We focus on the changes in metals production over time rather than the absolute amounts. Our motivating question is whether metals production can be scaled up at a pace that matches the rapidly increasing PV deployment levels put forward in aggressive low-carbon energy scenarios.We explore the required growth rates of metals production for PV installations to reach the levels projected in a range of published energy scenarios. We focus on the elements used in the absorber layer of the major PV technologies in production today: silicon for crystalline silicon (c-Si), tellurium for cadmium telluride (CdTe), and indium, gallium and selenium for copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS). (Future work may focus on additional PV technologies.) To