An effective energy technology strategy has to balance between setting a stable long term framework for innovation, while also responding to more immediate changes in technology cost and performance. Over the last decade, rather than a steady progression along an established learning curve, PV costs and prices have been volatile, with increases or plateaus followed by rapid reductions. The paper describes, and considers the causes of, recent changes in PV costs and prices at module and system level, both international trends and more place-specific contexts. It finds that both module and system costs and price trends have reflected multiple overlapping forces. Established forecasting methodsexperience curves and engineering assessmentshave limited ability to capture key learning effects behind recent PV cost and price trends: production scale effects, industrial reorganization and shakeouts, international trade practices and national market dynamics. These forces are likely to remain prominent aspect of technology learning effects in the foreseeable futureand so are in need of improved, more explicit representation in energy technology forecasting.

Scarcity of indium and tellurium has been highlighted as a potential barrier for cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) thin film technologies to achieve both large-scale deployment and reduction in production costs. With the aim of assessing the relative weight of the aforementioned concerns, this paper looks at indium and tellurium availability and implications for CIGS and CdTe production costs of their price increases. A breakdown of CdTe and CIGS module production costs is provided, accounting for the relative share of each component materials over total module cost. Conditions affecting usage of the key materials in CdTe and CIGS technologies are weighted against potential future indium and tellurium price escalation to provide a fuller picture of production cost implications for the thin film photovoltaics technologies. This includes exploring and quantifying the potential for innovation and technological developments (including efficiency increases, reduced absorber layer, higher material utilisation during deposition process) to ease the impact of possible future indium and tellurium supply constraints and price increases.

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