The dynamics of solar PV costs and prices as a challenge for technology forecasting

Candelise, Chiara; Winskel, Mark; Groß, Robert

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2013.05.012

Cited by 168 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…14% is at the lower bound for wind and PV combined (for PV, see Candelisea et al, 2013). However, since we look at the complete costs of a REGT installation, we have to assume a lower learning rate, since not all cost components decrease as fast as the technology cost.…”

Section: Market For Electricitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal policy identification: Insights from the German electricity market

Herrmann

Savin

2017

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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The diffusion of renewable electricity generating technologies is widely considered as crucial for establishing a sustainable energy system in the future. However, the required transition is unlikely to be achieved by market forces alone. For this reason, many countries implement various policy instruments to support this process, also by re-distributing related costs among all electricity consumers. This paper presents a novel history-friendly agent-based study aiming to explore the efficiency of different mixes of policy instruments by means of a Differential Evolution algorithm. Special emphasis of the model is devoted to the possibility of small scale renewable electricity generation, but also to the storage of this electricity using small scale facilities being actively developed over the last decade. Both combined pose an important instrument for electricity consumers to achieve partial or full autarky from the electricity grid, particularly after accounting for decreasing costs and increasing efficiency of both due to continuous innovation. Among other things, we find that the historical policy mix of Germany introduced too strong and inflexible demand-side instruments (like feed-in tariff) too early, thereby creating strong path-dependency for future policy makers and reducing their ability to react to technological but also economic shocks without further increases of the budget.

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Section: Market For Electricitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal policy identification: Insights from the German electricity market

Herrmann

Savin

2017

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…According to (Candelise et al, 2013) the BOS represents between 50% and 65% of the total installed cost of grid connected PV systems. Here, we assume that i PV = 1200 e/kWp for a PV field in the power range [100 kW, 200 kW] (Tilli et al, 2017;Paul, 2017;UNEF, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smart integration of photovoltaic production, heat pump and thermal energy storage in residential applications

et al. 2019

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The optimal design of distributed generation systems is of foremost importance to reduce fossil fuel consumption and mitigate the environmental impact of human activities in urban areas. Moreover, an efficient and integrated control strategy is needed for each of the components of a distributed generation plant, in order to reach the expected economic and environmental performances.In this paper, the transition from natural gas to electricity-based heating is evaluated for residential applications, considering the interplay between photovoltaic electricity produced on site and the thermal energy storage, to grant the optimal management of heating devices. The energy demand of an apartment building, under different climatic conditions, is taken as a reference and four power plant solutions are assessed in terms of energy cost and pollution reduction potential, compared to a baseline plant configuration. The performance of each power plant is analyzed assuming an optimized control strategy, which is determined through a graph-based methodology that was previously developed and validated by the authors. Outcomes from our study show that, if heat pumps are used instead of natural gas boilers, energy costs can be reduced up to 41%, while CO 2 emissions can be reduced up to 73%, depending on the climatic conditions.Our results provide a sound basis for considering the larger penetration of photovoltaic plants as an effective solution towards cleaner and more efficient heating technologies for civil applications. The simultaneous utilization of heat pumps (as substitutes of boilers) and photovoltaic panels yields a positive synergy that nullifies the local pollution, drastically cuts the CO 2 emission, and guarantees the economical sustainability of the investment in renewable energy sources without subsidiary mechanisms.

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“…Following the introduction of the FiT, the PV deployment across the UK was significantly higher than had initially been anticipated [27], meaning the annual cost of supporting PV deployment was also higher than expected, presenting a challenge for government in the context of budgetary control. The high deployment was in part due to declining module prices, reducing the capital cost of PV systems [2]. In February 2011 a review of the FiT was announced.…”

Section: Policy Support For Photovoltaics In the Ukmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The uptake of PV at a national level initially triggered by the introduction of market-pull policies [1] has helped global reductions in PV system prices which, in turn, fostered further deployment worldwide [2]. In the United Kingdom in particular, installed capacity, grew from 32 MWp at the end of 2009 to over 2800 MWp (comprising around 500,000 installations) by the end of 2013 [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Geographical Information Systems Framework to Characterize Photovoltaic Deployment in the UK: Initial Evidence

Westacott

Candelise

2016

Energies

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Globally, deployment of grid-connected photovoltaics (PV) has increased dramatically in recent years. The UK has seen rapid uptake reaching over 500,000 installations totalling 2.8 GWp by 2013. PV can be installed in different market segments (domestic rooftop, non-domestic rooftop and ground-mounted "solar-farms") covering a broad range of system sizes in a high number of locations. It is important to gain detailed understanding of what grid-connected PV deployment looks like (e.g., how it deployed across different geographic areas and market segments), and identify the major drivers behind it. This paper answers these questions by developing a novel geographical information systems (GIS)-framework-the United Kingdom Photovoltaics Database (UKPVD)-to analyze temporal and spatial PV deployment trends at high resolution across all market segments. Results show how PV deployment changed over time with the evolution of governmental PV policy support. Then spatial trends as function of local irradiation, rurality (as a proxy of building and population density) and building footprint (as a proxy for roof-area) are analyzed. We find in all market segments, PV deployment is strongly correlated with the level of policy support. Furthermore, all markets show a preference to deploy in rural areas and those with higher irradiation. Finally, local clustering of PV in all market segments was observed, revealing that PV is not spread evenly across areas. This work reveals the complex nature of PV deployment, both spatially and by market segment, reinforcing the need capture this through mapping.

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The dynamics of solar PV costs and prices as a challenge for technology forecasting

Cited by 168 publications

References 34 publications

Optimal policy identification: Insights from the German electricity market

Optimal policy identification: Insights from the German electricity market

Smart integration of photovoltaic production, heat pump and thermal energy storage in residential applications

A Novel Geographical Information Systems Framework to Characterize Photovoltaic Deployment in the UK: Initial Evidence

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