Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation Kavlak, Goksin et al. "Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules."

Because modern technology depends on reliable supplies of a wide variety of materials, and because of increasing concern about those supplies, a comprehensive methodology has been created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we apply this methodology to the elements of the geological copper family: Cu, As, Se, Ag, Te, and Au. These elements are technologically important, but show a substantial variation in different factors relating to their supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications. Assessments are made on corporate, national, and global levels for year 2008. Evaluations of each of the multiple indicators are presented and the results plotted in "criticality space", together with Monte Carlo simulation-derived "uncertainty cloud" estimates for each of the aggregated evaluations. For supply risk over both the medium term and long term, As is the highest risk of the six metals, with Se and Ag nearly as high. Gold has the most severe environmental implications ranking. Vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) at the corporate level for an invented solar cell manufacturing firm shows Se, Te, and Cu as approximately equal, Cu has the highest VSR at the national level, and Cu and Au have the highest VSRs at the global level. Criticality vector magnitudes are greatest at the global level for As (and then Au and Ag) and at the national level for As and Au; at the corporate level, Se is highest with Te and Cu lower. An extension of this work, now in progress, will provide criticality estimates for several different development scenarios for the period 2010-2050.

Summary Concerns about the future availability and continuity of metal supplies have triggered research efforts to define and assess metal criticality. In this study, we apply a comprehensive methodology to the elements of the geological zinc, tin, and lead family: zinc (Zn); germanium (Ge); cadmium (Cd); indium (In); tin (Sn); and lead (Pb). Zn, Sn, and Pb have played important roles in various technological sectors for centuries, whereas Ge, Cd, and In are by‐product metals that are increasingly utilized in emerging and strategic technologies. Criticality assessments are made on national (i.e., the United States) and global levels for 2008. The results are presented with uncertainty estimates in three‐dimensional “criticality space,” comprised of supply risk (SR), environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) axes. SR is the highest for In for both the medium (i.e., five to ten years) and long term (i.e., a few decades). Pb and Zn have the lowest SR for the medium term and Pb the lowest SR for the long term. In and Ge production have the highest environmental burdens, mainly as a result of emissions from Zn smelting and subsequent metals purification and recovery from Zn leaching residues. VSR is highest for Pb at the global and national levels.

Cobalt is a vital element in many technological applications, which, together with its increasing end-use in batteries, makes it important to quantify its cycle of use. We have done so for the planet as a whole and for the three principal cobalt-using countries - China, Japan, and the United States - for 2005. Together, China, Japan, and the United States accounted for approximately 65% of the cobalt fabricated and manufactured into end-use products (a total of 37 Gg Co). A time residence model allowed calculations of in-use stock accumulation and recycled and landfilled flows. China had the largest accumulation of in-use stock at some 4.3 Gg Co, over half of which was comprised of consumer battery stock. More than half of the stock accumulation in the United States was estimated to be in aircraft, rocket, and gas turbine engines, with a total in-use stock accumulation of approximately 3 Gg Co. The largest amounts of cobalt landfilled in China, the United States, and the planet were from the "chemical and other uses" category, and Japan's largest landfilled flow was in consumer batteries.