Impacts of temperature and its variability on mortality in New England

Shi, Liuhua; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Liu, Pengfei; Schwartz, Joel

doi:10.1038/nclimate2704

Cited by 150 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…We also examined city characteristics (PM 2.5 concentration levels, air temperature, elevation, vegetation, the size of the elderly population, population density, and baseline mortality) that were found to influence mortality in previous epidemiological studies (Zanobetti et al, 2012; Burtscher, 2014; Shi et al, 2015), to explain some of the observed heterogeneity by including each city-specific variable separately in the meta-regression model (Table B.1). Since some of these variables are correlated, we also conducted a factor analysis using a non-orthogonal rotation method and regressed the city-specific effect estimates on the identified factors in the meta-regression.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Acute effects of fine particulate matter constituents on mortality: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Achilleos

Kioumourtzoglou

et al. 2017

Environment International

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225

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Background The link between PM2.5 exposure and adverse health outcomes is well documented from studies across the world. However, the reported effect estimates vary across studies, locations and constituents. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis on associations between short-term exposure to PM2.5 constituents and mortality using city-specific estimates, and explore factors that may explain some of the observed heterogeneity. Methods We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies on particle constituents and mortality using PubMed and Web of Science databases up to July 2015. We included studies that examined the association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 constituents and all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, in the general adult population. Each study was summarized based on pre-specified study key parameters (e.g., location, time period, population, diagnostic classification standard), and we evaluated the risk of bias using the Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) Method for each included study. We extracted city-specific mortality risk estimates for each constituent and cause of mortality. For multi-city studies, we requested the city-specific risk estimates from the authors unless reported in the article. We performed random effects meta-analyses using city-specific estimates, and examined whether the effects vary across regions and city characteristics (PM2.5 concentration levels, air temperature, elevation, vegetation, size of elderly population, population density, and baseline mortality) can explain the observed heterogeneity. Results We found a 0.89% (95% CI: 0.68, 1.10%) increase in all-cause, a 0.80% (95% CI: 0.41, 1.20%) increase in cardiovascular, and a 1.10% (95% CI: 0.59, 1.62%) increase in respiratory mortality per 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5. Accounting for the downward bias induced by studies of single days, the all-cause mortality estimate increased to 1.01% (95% CI: 0.81, 1.20%). We found significant associations between mortality and several PM2.5 constituents. The most consistent and stronger associations were observed for elemental carbon (EC) and potassium (K). For most of the constituents, we observed high variability of effect estimates across cities. Conclusions Our meta-analysis suggests that (a) combustion elements such as EC and K have a stronger association with mortality, (b) single lag studies underestimate effects, and (c) estimates of PM2.5 and constituents differ across regions. Accounting for PM mass in constituent’s health models may lead to more stable and comparable effect estimates across different studies. Systematic review registration PROSPERO: CRD42017055765

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Acute effects of fine particulate matter constituents on mortality: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Achilleos

Kioumourtzoglou

et al. 2017

Environment International

Self Cite

225

134

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“…Climate change may reduce economic output 24 , amplify rates of conflict 31 , produce psychological distress 54 , increase exposure to the social effects of drought 55 and increase heat-related mortality and morbidity [56][57][58][59][60][61] , among other illnesses. However, climatic changes are unlikely to be uniformly costly to society, and it is important to investigate both costs and benefits.…”

Section: Nature Human Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change may alter human physical activity patterns

2017

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Regular physical activity supports healthy human functioning 1-3 . Might climate change-by modifying the environmental determinants of human physical activity-alter exercise rates in the future 4 ? Here we conduct an empirical investigation of the relationship between meteorological conditions, physical activity and future climate change. Using data on reported participation in recreational physical activity from over 1.9 million US survey respondents between 2002 and 2012, coupled with daily meteorological data, we show that both cold and acutely hot temperatures, as well as precipitation days, reduce physical activity. We combine our historical estimates with output from 21 climate models and project the possible physical activity effects of future climatic changes by 2050 and 2099. Our projection indicates that warming over the course of this century may increase net recreational physical activity in the United States. Activity may increase most during the winter in northern states and decline most during the summer in southern states.At a physiological level, too little exercise can produce costly health outcomes like obesity 1 , cardiovascular disease 3 and diabetes 2 , and insufficient physical activity is a leading cause of death in the United States 5 . Sedentary lifestyles are also associated with psychological concerns such as impaired cognitive performance 6 and a greater risk of clinical depression and anxiety 7 . Human well-being clearly suffers from insufficient physical activity. Yet even in spite of its substantial benefits, people in many countries participate in below-recommended levels of physical activity 8 and are becoming increasingly sedentary 9 .Further, external factors such as urban and workplace design 10 , social relations 11 and environmental characteristics shape behaviours regarding when, where and the extent to which humans are physically active. Of the environmental factors affecting physical activity rates, temperature plays a noteworthy role 12 . When it is too cold or too hot, adults perform less physical activity, resulting in more sedentary lifestyles. This reduction is mostly due to the nature of adult physical activity: the vast majority of exercise-related physical activity occurs outdoors 13 . When it is too cold or to hot to go outdoors-for a walk, a jog, or to garden-many simply forgo physical activity entirely.These facts combine to suggest that weather and climate may be substantial determinants of behavioural patterns that underlie costly public health crises. Here we report on the effect of meteorological conditions on participation in recreational physical activity of over 1.9 million US residents between 2002 and 2012. Using these data, we examine four questions. First, what weather conditions are most conducive to individual participation in physical activities? Second, do the effects of temperature on physical activity vary by demographic factors like weight and age? Third, how might climate change alter the distribution of physical activity throughout the month...

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“…6,20 In addition, both mortality among the elderly and PM 2.5 composition could be affected by climate. 21-24 Little is known about the interaction between long-term temperature and long-term PM 2.5 exposure on mortality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Exposure to PM2.5 and Mortality Among Older Adults in the Southeastern US

et al. 2017

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Background Little is known about what factors modify the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on mortality, in part because in most previous studies certain groups such as rural residents and individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES) are under-represented. Methods We studied 13.1 million Medicare beneficiaries (age ≥65) residing in seven southeastern US states during 2000–2013 with 95 million person-years of follow-up. We predicted annual average of PM2.5 in each zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) using a hybrid spatiotemporal model. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between long-term PM2.5 and mortality. We tested effect modification by individual-level covariates (race, sex, eligibility for both Medicare and Medicaid, and medical history), neighborhood-level covariates (urbanicity, percentage below poverty level, lower education, median income, and median home value), mean summer temperature, and mass fraction of 11 PM2.5 components. Results The hazard ratio (HR) for death was 1.021 (95% confidence interval: 1.019–1.022) per one μg m-3 increase in annual PM2.5. The HR decreased with age. It was higher among males, non-whites, dual-eligible individuals, and beneficiaries with previous hospital admissions. It was higher in neighborhoods with lower SES or higher urbanicity. The HR increased with mean summer temperature. The risk associated with PM2.5 increased with relative concentration of elemental carbon, vanadium, copper, calcium, and iron and decreased with nitrate, organic carbon, and sulfate. Conclusions Associations between long-term PM2.5 exposure and death were modified by individual-level, neighborhood-level variables, temperature, and chemical compositions.

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Impacts of temperature and its variability on mortality in New England

Cited by 150 publications

References 24 publications

Acute effects of fine particulate matter constituents on mortality: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Acute effects of fine particulate matter constituents on mortality: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Climate change may alter human physical activity patterns

Long-term Exposure to PM2.5 and Mortality Among Older Adults in the Southeastern US

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