SummaryBackgroundAlthough studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.MethodsWe collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.FindingsWe analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality.InterpretationMost of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

Background Studies have shown that long-term exposure to air pollution increases mortality. However, evidence is limited for air-pollution levels below the most recent National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Previous studies involved predominantly urban populations and did not have the statistical power to estimate the health effects in underrepresented groups. Methods We constructed an open cohort of all Medicare beneficiaries (60,925,443 persons) in the continental United States from the years 2000 through 2012, with 460,310,521 person-years of follow-up. Annual averages of fine particulate matter (particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm [PM2.5]) and ozone were estimated according to the ZIP Code of residence for each enrollee with the use of previously validated prediction models. We estimated the risk of death associated with exposure to increases of 10 μg per cubic meter for PM2.5 and 10 parts per billion (ppb) for ozone using a two-pollutant Cox proportional-hazards model that controlled for demographic characteristics, Medicaid eligibility, and area-level covariates. Results Increases of 10 μg per cubic meter in PM2.5 and of 10 ppb in ozone were associated with increases in all-cause mortality of 7.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.1 to 7.5) and 1.1% (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.2), respectively. When the analysis was restricted to person-years with exposure to PM2.5 of less than 12 μg per cubic meter and ozone of less than 50 ppb, the same increases in PM2.5 and ozone were associated with increases in the risk of death of 13.6% (95% CI, 13.1 to 14.1) and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.9 to 1.1), respectively. For PM2.5, the risk of death among men, blacks, and people with Medicaid eligibility was higher than that in the rest of the population. Conclusions In the entire Medicare population, there was significant evidence of adverse effects related to exposure to PM2.5 and ozone at concentrations below current national standards. This effect was most pronounced among self-identified racial minorities and people with low income. (Supported by the Health Effects Institute and others.)

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The authors' full names, academic degrees, and affiliations are listed in the Appendix. Address reprint requests to Dr. Kan at P.O. Box 249, 130 Dong-An Road, Shanghai 200032, China, or at kanh@ fudan . edu . cn.Drs. Liu and R. Chen and Drs. Gasparrini and Kan contributed equally to this article.

Rationale: Exposure to particulate air pollution has been related to increased hospitalization and death, particularly from cardiovascular disease. Lower blood DNA methylation content is found in processes related to cardiovascular outcomes, such as oxidative stress, aging, and atherosclerosis. Objectives: We evaluated whether particulate pollution modifies DNA methylation in heavily methylated sequences with high representation throughout the human genome. Methods: We measured DNA methylation of long interspersed nucleotide element (LINE)-1 and Alu repetitive elements by quantitative polymerase chain reaction-pyrosequencing of 1,097 blood samples from 718 elderly participants in the Boston area Normative Aging Study. We used covariate-adjusted mixed models to account for within-subject correlation in repeated measures. We estimated the effects on DNA methylation of ambient particulate pollutants (black carbon, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 mm [PM 2.5 ], or sulfate) in multiple time windows (4 h to 7 d) before the examination. We estimated standardized regression coefficients (b) expressing the fraction of a standard deviation change in DNA methylation associated with a standard deviation increase in exposure. Measurements and Main Results: Repetitive element DNA methylation varied in association with time-related variables, such as day of the week and season. LINE-1 methylation decreased after recent exposure to higher black carbon (b 5 20.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 20.18 to 20.04; P 5 0.002) and PM 2.5 (b 5 20.13; 95% CI, 20.19 to 20.06; P , 0.001 for the 7-d moving average). In two-pollutant models, only black carbon, a tracer of traffic particles, was significantly associated with LINE-1 methylation (b 5 20.09; 95% CI, 20.17 to 20.01; P 5 0.03). No association was found with Alu methylation (P . 0.12). Conclusions: We found decreased repeated-element methylation after exposure to traffic particles. Whether decreased methylation mediates exposure-related health effects remains to be determined.

Weather is known to modulate health. Seasonal changes of temperature promote changes in the daily number of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) as well as in total and cause-specific mortality. These effects are more prominent among elderly people and children (1).Although cold temperatures show greater effects than do hot temperatures, other factors such as respiratory epidemics, usually present during the winter, make unclear the precise role of temperature on increased morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, heat and heat waves are associated with increased morbidity and mortality (2). Increases of heat-related illnesses have been reported during episodes of excessive temperature, especially in mid-latitude cities (3,4). The effect of heat waves has gained more attention because of the expected changes in mean temperature with the increase of greenhouse gases. Because other factors contribute to the seasonal patterns in mortality, studies have begun to focus on the short-term effects of weather, controlling for season. In this regard, realization has been growing that weather changes might cause delayed effects and that some of the heat-related deaths might be very short-term displacements of the deaths of critically ill people, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as harvesting.To address these issues, we have studied the effect of temperature on mortality, focusing on its lag structure. Rather than look at simple means of, for example, the previous week's or 3 weeks' temperature, we have allowed the effect of weather to vary with the lag time between exposure and the related death, with lags up to 3 weeks. To reduce the noise that accompanies estimating the effects of temperature on 21 different days, we applied a polynomial distributed lag model (5,6). In our previous study (7), we examined 12 U.S. cities and estimated the effect of mean daily temperature and relative humidity on each of the 21 days before the death on total deaths in each of the cities. We did meta-analyses stratifying the analyses in two groups: hot and cold cities. In cold cities, we found both high and low temperatures associated with increased deaths. Although the cold effect persisted for days, the effect of high temperatures was more immediate (day of and day before the death) and was twice as large as the cold effect. However, the hot temperature effect appears to involve primarily harvesting. In hot cities, neither hot nor cold temperatures had much effect on deaths. Moreover, the magnitude of the effect of hot temperature varied with central air conditioning use and the variance of summer temperatures. These results agree with other studies that have pointed out the impact of housing, air conditioning, and variability of mean temperature as important factors on heat-related health effects (2).Total mortality encompasses deaths from a wide variety of causes. Different disease states may show different sensitivities to extremes in temperature. Understanding these differences may help in understanding both the sensitive ...

SummaryBackgroundClimate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.MethodsWe collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.FindingsOur dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.InterpretationThis study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

BackgroundAlthough many studies have examined the effects of air pollution on mortality, data limitations have resulted in fewer studies of both particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5; fine particles) and of coarse particles (particles with an aerodynamic diameter > 2.5 and < 10 μm; PM coarse). We conducted a national, multicity time-series study of the acute effect of PM2.5 and PM coarse on the increased risk of death for all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and respiratory mortality for the years 1999–2005.MethodWe applied a city- and season-specific Poisson regression in 112 U.S. cities to examine the association of mean (day of death and previous day) PM2.5 and PM coarse with daily deaths. We combined the city-specific estimates using a random effects approach, in total, by season and by region.ResultsWe found a 0.98% increase [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75–1.22] in total mortality, a 0.85% increase (95% CI, 0.46–1.24) in CVD, a 1.18% increase (95% CI, 0.48–1.89) in MI, a 1.78% increase (95% CI, 0.96–2.62) in stroke, and a 1.68% increase (95% CI, 1.04–2.33) in respiratory deaths for a 10-μg/m3 increase in 2-day averaged PM2.5. The effects were higher in spring. For PM coarse, we found significant but smaller increases for all causes analyzed.ConclusionsWe conclude that our analysis showed an increased risk of mortality for all and specific causes associated with PM2.5, and the risks are higher than what was previously observed for PM10. In addition, coarse particles are also associated with more deaths.