Climate change may alter human physical activity patterns

Abstract

Regular physical activity supports healthy human functioning 1-3 . Might climate change-by modifying the environmental determinants of human physical activity-alter exercise rates in the future 4 ? Here we conduct an empirical investigation of the relationship between meteorological conditions, physical activity and future climate change. Using data on reported participation in recreational physical activity from over 1.9 million US survey respondents between 2002 and 2012, coupled with daily meteorological data, we show that both cold and acutely hot temperatures, as well as precipitation days, reduce physical activity. We combine our historical estimates with output from 21 climate models and project the possible physical activity effects of future climatic changes by 2050 and 2099. Our projection indicates that warming over the course of this century may increase net recreational physical activity in the United States. Activity may increase most during the winter in northern states and decline most during the summer in southern states.At a physiological level, too little exercise can produce costly health outcomes like obesity 1 , cardiovascular disease 3 and diabetes 2 , and insufficient physical activity is a leading cause of death in the United States 5 . Sedentary lifestyles are also associated with psychological concerns such as impaired cognitive performance 6 and a greater risk of clinical depression and anxiety 7 . Human well-being clearly suffers from insufficient physical activity. Yet even in spite of its substantial benefits, people in many countries participate in below-recommended levels of physical activity 8 and are becoming increasingly sedentary 9 .Further, external factors such as urban and workplace design 10 , social relations 11 and environmental characteristics shape behaviours regarding when, where and the extent to which humans are physically active. Of the environmental factors affecting physical activity rates, temperature plays a noteworthy role 12 . When it is too cold or too hot, adults perform less physical activity, resulting in more sedentary lifestyles. This reduction is mostly due to the nature of adult physical activity: the vast majority of exercise-related physical activity occurs outdoors 13 . When it is too cold or to hot to go outdoors-for a walk, a jog, or to garden-many simply forgo physical activity entirely.These facts combine to suggest that weather and climate may be substantial determinants of behavioural patterns that underlie costly public health crises. Here we report on the effect of meteorological conditions on participation in recreational physical activity of over 1.9 million US residents between 2002 and 2012. Using these data, we examine four questions. First, what weather conditions are most conducive to individual participation in physical activities? Second, do the effects of temperature on physical activity vary by demographic factors like weight and age? Third, how might climate change alter the distribution of physical activity throughout the month...

Local weather is associated with rates of online searches for musculoskeletal pain symptoms

“…We can hypothesize that this pattern may be explained by individuals becoming more active—and therefore more at risk of injury—as temperatures increase up to a certain level, until it becomes too hot to exercise comfortably. This proposed pattern of increasing activity levels until a certain temperature has been reached and thereafter a decline in activity levels is supported by recent findings [34]. In the present study, no clear pattern was seen for arthritis related search terms as the temperature increased to 25–30°C, however we did see a significant reduction in search volume as temperatures increased above 30°C, similar to that seen for the knee and hip pain terms.…”

Loss of profit in the hotel industry of the United States due to climate change

“…Overall, the magnitudes of the coefficients are small. These results approximate the observations in the previous study on how climate change alters human outdoor physical activity [17].…”

“…We construct our model following a series of studies documenting the effects of climate factors on human activities [12,[17][18][19][20][21] as: where i represents hotels, and t stands for months over the study period. y it denotes the business indicator of a hotel.…”

In reply to commentary “Addressing population levels of physical activity requires investment beyond the health sector” by Bauman A.

“…Evans emphasises and explores the potential behavioural impacts of GCC that will be due to higher temperatures, extreme weather events (storms, drought and flooding) and an increase in air pollution. Environmental factors such as temperature play a significant role in physical activity levels and can also affect mental health . If it is too hot or too cold individuals will have a natural tendency to avoid or limit physical activity.…”

“…Evans reinforced that temperature can have a significant impact on the overall quality of life. This suggests that the weather and any change in climatic conditions can be related to human behavioural patterns, which could influence decisions to participate in recreational outdoor activities and be seen to have a direct impact on physical activity levels, therefore ultimately become expensive for the health sector …”