Impact of climate change on the hydrology of St. Lawrence tributaries

Boyer, Claudine; Chaumont, Diane; Chartier, I.; Roy, Alain

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.011

Cited by 156 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…This makes winter the season with the largest range of projected changes (4.188C) with a mean increase approaching 3.638C in January. Temperature changes in winter are of particular interest because this is the period when greater impacts are expected in the region (Boyer et al 2010). The greatest increases in precipitation throughout the four projections also occur in winter or spring with increases approaching 60 and 40% in January and April, respectively.…”

Section: Precipitation and Temperature Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To assess climate change impacts and their associated uncertainties it is common practice to inject within impact models a range of potential temperature and precipitation changes (Boeé t al. 2009;Boyer et al 2010;Crossman et al 2013). The range should be as wide as possible and integrating several simulations constructed with different models, GHGe and parameterization choices ).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

et al. 2015

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. 2015. Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Que´bec. Can. J. Soil Sci. 95: 337Á358. The impacts of climate change on water quality in the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads into the northern arm of Lake Champlain, were simulated for the time horizon 2041Á2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) customized to Que´bec agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climate data simulated with the Fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. Potential mean climate-induced changes in sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen yield projected by these scenarios were then analyzed for the 2050 horizon. In addition, the impacts of the different sources of climate projection uncertainty were assessed by comparing climate model initial conditions, and climate model physical structure effects on the hydrochemical projections. Only one climate scenario projected a significant increase in mean annual total phosphorus [10 metrics tons (t) yr (1 or 14%] and total nitrogen (260 t yr (1 or 17%) loads. However, when shorter time spans (seasonal and monthly scales) were considered, several significant changes were detected, especially in winter. Sediment and nutrient loadings, in winter, were predicted to become three to four times higher than current levels. These increases were attributed to a greater vulnerability of soils to erosion in winter due to the decrease in the snowpack, early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events, and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures.

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Section: Precipitation and Temperature Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

et al. 2015

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“…Several studies addressed all of them (e.g. Vicuna et al, 2007;Minville et al, 2008;Kay et al, 2009;Boyer et al, 2010;Görgen et al, 2010;Teng et al, 2012;Jung et al, 2012) while others focused on specific ones (e.g. Ludwig et al, 2009;Gardner, 2009;Poulin et al, 2011;Bae et al, 2011;Teng et al, 2012;Velázquez et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures

Seiller¹,

Anctil²

2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Diagnosing the impacts of climate change on water resources is a difficult task pertaining to the uncertainties arising from the different modelling steps. Lumped hydrological model structures contribute to this uncertainty as well as the natural climate variability, illustrated by several members from the same Global Circulation Model. In this paper, the hydroclimatic modelling chain consists of twenty-four potential evapotranspiration formulations, twenty lumped conceptual hydrological models, and seven snowmelt modules. These structures are applied on a natural Canadian subcatchment to address related uncertainties and compare them to the natural internal variability of simulated climate system as depicted by five climatic members. Uncertainty in simulated streamflow under current and projected climates is assessed. They rely on interannual hydrographs and hydrological indicators analysis. Results show that natural climate variability is the major source of uncertainty, followed by potential evapotranspiration formulations and hydrological models. The selected snowmelt modules, however, do not contribute much to the uncertainty. The analysis also illustrates that the streamflow simulation over the current climate period is already conditioned by the tools' selection. This uncertainty is propagated to reference simulations and future projections, amplified by climatic members. These findings demonstrate the importance of opting for several climatic members to encompass the important uncertainty related to the climate natural variability, but also of selecting multiple modelling tools to provide a trustworthy diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources.

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“…Among such changes, climate warming is the most likely to alter, to a varying extent, the natural hydrologic regime of the river with negative consequences on its biodiversity. Thus, according to hydroclimate models, climate warming will significantly alter the seasonal hydrologic cycle of the St. Lawrence and its tributaries [2]. These models predict an increase in streamflow or water levels in winter, due to increased precipitation as rain resulting from winter warming, on the one hand, and a significant decrease in streamflow in springtime resulting from decreasing snowfall in winter and increasing evapotranspiration caused by increasing temperature in springtime, on the other hand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Variability of Monthly Daily Extreme Water Levels in the St. Lawrence River at the Sorel Station from 1912 to 2010

Assani

Landry

Labrèche

et al. 2014

Water

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Abstract:Although climate models predict that the impacts of climate change on the temporal variability of water levels in the St. Lawrence River will be seasonally-dependent, such a seasonal effect on the current variability of extreme water levels has never been analyzed. To address this, we analyzed the temporal variability of three hydrological variables (monthly daily maximums and minimums, as well as their ratio) of water levels in the St. Lawrence River measured at the Sorel station since 1912, as they relate to climate indices. As for stationarity, the shifts in the mean values of maximum and minimum water levels revealed by the Lombard method took place prior to 1970 for spring water levels, but after that year, for winter water levels. Changes in the winter stationarity are thought to mainly relate to the decreasing snowfall observed in the St. Lawrence River watershed after 1970. In contrast, for spring, these changes are likely primarily related to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams). Two shifts in the mean values of fall minimum extreme water levels were highlighted. The first of these shifts, which occurred in the first half of the 1960s decade, can also be linked to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams), whereas the second shift, observed after the 1970s for the months of November and December, can be linked to decreasing amounts of snow in winter. AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is the climate index that is most frequently correlated negatively with the hydrologic variables, mainly in winter and spring.

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Impact of climate change on the hydrology of St. Lawrence tributaries

Cited by 156 publications

References 69 publications

Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures

Temporal Variability of Monthly Daily Extreme Water Levels in the St. Lawrence River at the Sorel Station from 1912 to 2010

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