Temporal Variability of Monthly Daily Extreme Water Levels in the St. Lawrence River at the Sorel Station from 1912 to 2010

Abstract

Abstract:Although climate models predict that the impacts of climate change on the temporal variability of water levels in the St. Lawrence River will be seasonally-dependent, such a seasonal effect on the current variability of extreme water levels has never been analyzed. To address this, we analyzed the temporal variability of three hydrological variables (monthly daily maximums and minimums, as well as their ratio) of water levels in the St. Lawrence River measured at the Sorel station since 1912, as they relate to climate indices. As for stationarity, the shifts in the mean values of maximum and minimum water levels revealed by the Lombard method took place prior to 1970 for spring water levels, but after that year, for winter water levels. Changes in the winter stationarity are thought to mainly relate to the decreasing snowfall observed in the St. Lawrence River watershed after 1970. In contrast, for spring, these changes are likely primarily related to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams). Two shifts in the mean values of fall minimum extreme water levels were highlighted. The first of these shifts, which occurred in the first half of the 1960s decade, can also be linked to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams), whereas the second shift, observed after the 1970s for the months of November and December, can be linked to decreasing amounts of snow in winter. AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is the climate index that is most frequently correlated negatively with the hydrologic variables, mainly in winter and spring.

Temporal variability of streamflow and plant species abundance on islets as they relate to ENSO events downstream from an inversion‐type reservoir

“…These low flows may have been caused by the El Niño event (2009–2010), which led to a shortage of soil water, such that more water was required the following year (2010) to recharge the soil. This finding suggests a positive correlation between La Niña events and flows downstream from the reservoir and is consistent with many findings from natural rivers (e.g., Anctil & Coulibaly, ; Assani et al, ; Assani et al, ; Assani et al, ; Assani et al, ; Beauchamp et al, ; Biron et al, ; Coulibaly & Burn, ; Guerfi, Assani, Mesfioui, & Kinnard, ; Mazouz et al, , ; Shabbar, ). Indeed, La Niña events are generally associated with relatively high snowfall in Quebec, which leads to much higher spring flows when this snow melts.…”

“…Many studies have looked at this influence on natural rivers in many parts of the world (e.g., Amarasekera, Lee, Williams, & Eltahir, ; Cayan, Redmond, & Riddle, ; Chiew, Piechota, Dracup, & McMahon, ; Chiew & McMahon, ; Clark, Nnaji, & Huang, ; Dilley & Heyman, ; Mosley, ; Piechota, Dracup, & Fovell, ; Räsänen & Kummu, ; Ward, Beets, Bouwer, Aerts, & Renssen, ; Ward, Eisner, Flörke, Dettinger, & Kummu, ; Ward et al, ; Veldkamp et al, 2015). For Quebec more specifically, many studies looked at the relationship between streamflow and ENSO events (e.g., Anctil & Coulibaly, ; Assani, Charron, Matteau, Mesfoui, & Quessy, ; Assani, Landais, Mesfioui, & Matteau, ; Assani, Landry, Labrèche, Frenette, & Gratton, ; Assani, Landry, & Laurencelle, ; Beauchamp, Assani, Landry, & Massicotte, ; Biron, Assani, Frenette, & Massicotte, ; Coulibaly & Burn, ; Mazouz, Assani, Quessy, & Légaré, ; Mazouz, Assani, & Rodriguez, ). These studies have shown that the influence of ENSO on streamflow is relatively weak or nonexistent depending on the type of flow analysed.…”

Comparison of Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River hydrologic droughts and their relationship to climate indices

“…Climate index series were produced using the same approach as water level series. The five climate indices which are known to affect the temporal variability of hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and water levels) in Quebec and North America [e.g., Assani et al ., ; Anctil and Coulibaly , ; Coulibaly and Burn , ; Curtis , ; Déry and Wood , ; Enfield et al ., ; Kingston et al ., ; McCabe et al ., ; Sutton and Hodson , ] were selected. These indices are AMO (Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation), AO (Arctic Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and SOI (Southern Oscillation Index).…”

Optimal Operation of Cascade Reservoirs for Flood Control of Multiple Areas Downstream: A Case Study in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

“…For safety of lives and property from risks related to floods, proper planning of relevant applications is important for development [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. To date, dams have become numerous and have had a profound effect on social and economic development.…”