Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

Abstract

. 2015. Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Que´bec. Can. J. Soil Sci. 95: 337Á358. The impacts of climate change on water quality in the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads into the northern arm of Lake Champlain, were simulated for the time horizon 2041Á2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) customized to Que´bec agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climate data simulated with the Fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. Potential mean climate-induced changes in sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen yield projected by these scenarios were then analyzed for the 2050 horizon. In addition, the impacts of the different sources of climate projection uncertainty were assessed by comparing climate model initial conditions, and climate model physical structure effects on the hydrochemical projections. Only one climate scenario projected a significant increase in mean annual total phosphorus [10 metrics tons (t) yr (1 or 14%] and total nitrogen (260 t yr (1 or 17%) loads. However, when shorter time spans (seasonal and monthly scales) were considered, several significant changes were detected, especially in winter. Sediment and nutrient loadings, in winter, were predicted to become three to four times higher than current levels. These increases were attributed to a greater vulnerability of soils to erosion in winter due to the decrease in the snowpack, early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events, and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures.

Using Geospatial Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Estimate Climate Change Impacts on Nitrogen Export: Case Study for a Forest and Pasture Dominated Watershed in North Carolina

“…Spring and summer months are projected to have lower streamflow and nitrogen export, while winter and fall months are expected to have higher streamflow and nitrogen export. A similar seasonal change in streamflow and nitrogen export due to climate change was found for Pike River watershed in southern Quebec that has similar land use, soil, and climate characteristics to our study watershed [18].…”

“…For both A2 and B1 scenarios, the decreases are mainly in spring and summer months by −35.5% (−17.8 to −48.7%) and the increases are in fall and winter months by 50.8% (10.7 to 107.8%) by the end century (Table 4). Similar studies that were conducted in the Pike River watershed in southern Quebec [18] and the Eagle Creek Watershed in Indiana [21] using SWAT also predicted that nitrogen load would increase in winter and decrease in summer due to climate change. ; from eight GCMs predicted B1 emission scenarios at EPA station J0770000; and, (d) the average inorganic nitrogen loading over the eight GCMs for the three study periods.…”

“…These GCM outputs are used to drive a calibrated SWAT model to simulate streamflow and inorganic nitrogen export. This study contributes to the growing research of climate change impacts in watershed hydrologic systems and water quality, specifically, on nitrogen export from watersheds with similar characteristics to the study watershed [18][19][20][21][22][23]. This study also contributes a methodology leveraging spatially-explicit data and analyses that can be applied to other critical and impaired watersheds across the world to better understand, from a mechanistic perspective, the specific relationship between changes in climate and nitrogen export for that watershed.…”

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Tile Discharge and Nitrogen Yield Using the DRAINMOD Model

“…In a study using SWAT model, [70], found that annual P loading would decrease in the future from a watershed in Lake Erie basin due to increased evapotranspiration and decreased snowfall. On the other hand, [14,18,19,68,71,72] all found that nutrient losses may increase in future in Ontario and Quebec watersheds.…”

Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

“…Nearly all studies have shown that climate change is likely to have a significant impact on contaminants' loads. Most indicate an overall increase in contaminants loads [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. It is obvious that this increase corresponds to water flow augmentation driven by precipitation increase.…”