Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

Abstract

Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021-2050, and far future: 2071-2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models-Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment-European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.

Using Geospatial Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Estimate Climate Change Impacts on Nitrogen Export: Case Study for a Forest and Pasture Dominated Watershed in North Carolina

“…Changes in both precipitation and temperature together result in an estimated increase in streamflow in the Eno River by, on average, 14.1% and 12.5%, respectively, for the A2 and B1 scenarios. This result is consistent with another study for two lowland catchments (Upper Narew and Barycz) in Poland with similar characteristics to the study watershed that also found water yield would increase due to projected temperature and precipitation changes [19].…”

“…These GCM outputs are used to drive a calibrated SWAT model to simulate streamflow and inorganic nitrogen export. This study contributes to the growing research of climate change impacts in watershed hydrologic systems and water quality, specifically, on nitrogen export from watersheds with similar characteristics to the study watershed [18][19][20][21][22][23]. This study also contributes a methodology leveraging spatially-explicit data and analyses that can be applied to other critical and impaired watersheds across the world to better understand, from a mechanistic perspective, the specific relationship between changes in climate and nitrogen export for that watershed.…”

A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference

“…17-Marcinkowski et al [39] studied the effect of climate change on the hydrology and water quality in Poland. They predicted an increase in TN losses.…”

Long-Term Downstream Effects of a Dam on a Lowland River Flow Regime: Case Study of the Upper Narew

“…Marcinkowski et al [41], by means of a hydrological model and nine General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model (GCM-RCM) runs, evaluated pure effect of climate on water resources for the Upper Narew catchment for the 2020-2050 time horizon. They postulated that the median of projected changes in water yield, i.e., the portion of precipitation that reaches the stream, indicate an average annual increase of 9%.…”