Abstract. Little quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment. This study investigates and compares the varieties of different model response of three hydrological models (PROMET, Hydrotel, HSAMI), each representing a different model complexity in terms of process description, parameter space and spatial and temporal scale. The study is performed in the Ammer watershed, a 709 km 2 catchment in the Bavarian alpine forelands, Germany. All models are driven and validated by a 30-year time-series of observation data. It is expressed by objective functions, that all models, HSAMI and Hydrotel due to calibration, perform almost equally well for runoff simulation over the validation period. Some systematic deviances in the hydrographs and the spatial patterns of hydrologic variables are however quite distinct and thus further discussed.Virtual future climate (2071-2100) is generated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (vers 3.7.1), driven by the Coupled Global Climate Model (vers. 2) based on an A2 emission scenario (IPCC 2007). The hydrological model performance is evaluated by flow indicators, such as flood frequency, annual 7-day and 30-day low flow and maximum seasonal flows. The modified climatic boundary conditions cause dramatic deviances in hydrologic model response. HSAMI shows tremendous overestimation of evapotranspiration, while Hydrotel and PROMET behave in comparable range. Still, their significant differences, like spatially explicit patterns of summerly water shortage or spring flood intensity, highlight the necessity to extend and quantify Correspondence to: R. Ludwig (r.ludwig@lmu.de) the uncertainty discussion in climate change impact analysis towards the remarkable effect of hydrological model complexity. It is obvious that for specific application purposes, water resources managers need to be made aware of this effect and have to take its implications into account for decision making. The paper concludes with an outlook and a proposal for future research necessities.
The analysis of the impact of climate change (CC) on flood peaks has been the subject of several studies. However, a flood is characterized not only by its peak, but also by other characteristics such as its volume and duration. Little effort has been directed towards the study of the impact of CC on these characteristics. The aim of the present study is to evaluate and compare flood characteristics in a CC context, in the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir (Province of Québec, Canada). Comparisons are based on observed flow data and simulated flow series obtained from hydrological models using meteorological data from a regional climate model for a reference period and a future period . To this end, two hydrological models HSAMI and HYDROTEL are considered. Correlations, stationarity, change-points and the multivariate behavior of flood series were studied. The results show that, at various levels, all flood characteristics could be affected by CC.
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