Identifying Underserved End-User Groups in the Provision of Climate Information

Abstract

Despite improvements in the science of climate forecasting, the application of forecasts faces key challenges. Prominent among such challenges is the fact that certain subgroupings of end users of climate information remain excluded from its potential benefits, or underserved. This paper suggests that such an omission may occur in part due to a lack of sophistication in the way the end user is viewed in the field of forecast applications research. End-user studies working both at generic and finer scales are cited, identifying reasons why certain user groups may be excluded from potential benefits of the forecast system. A case study in the Limpopo Province, South Africa, shows more specifically how one characteristic, namely gender, may determine such exclusion. The paper concludes by considering recommendations to improve inclusivity of climate information systems.

A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model

“…The importance of the user community for the application of climate forecasts (Pfaff et al, 1999;Archer, 2003) for probabilistic seasonal forecasts Zhu et al, 2002;Palmer, 2002) is recognized. The literature is limited on probabilistic application forecasts that apply some form of seasonal scale forecasts (Franz et al, 2003;Potgieter et al, 2003) with few reports of probabilistic application models embedded within an ensemble prediction system (e.g.…”

Ethnographic and participatory approaches to research on farmers’ responses to climate predictions

“…Drawing from a comparative analysis of case studies of forecast dissemination among producers of developing countries, Archer (2003) stressed the need to identify vulnerable social groups that are at risk of being 'underserved' by climate application efforts. She proposes that this be done by drawing on the methodological and theoretical advances in the fields of vulnerability science and gender analysis.…”

Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts in the Greater Horn of Africa

“…Communication with local African communities is often hampered by the complex terminology used to release forecasts and risk warnings, the lack of communication infrastructure, and, perhaps, a lack of understanding of modern scientific meteorology among farmers (Shah et al 2012). Trust issues between climate scientists and local communities, which are the end users of the forecasts, can also affect the effectiveness of risk alerts, as pointed out by Archer (2003), Hansen et al (2011), andBaudoin et al (2014).…”

“…Most farmers are not familiar with meteorological terms; and many do not have access to climate or weather information, because they are located in remote areas and/or do not possess communication devices (for example, TV or radio). Moreover, trust issues towards forecasts were revealed, because of past inaccuracies in climate predictions (which essentially relates to misinterpretation of the probabilistic language of forecasts), lack of interactions between farmers and scientists, and existing local system of knowledge on climate and seasonal patterns, whose relevance for decision making (for instance, in agriculture) has been demonstrated by Campbell (1999), Speranza et al (2009), Archer (2003, and Hansen et al (2011), among others.…”

“…For instance, training local advisers and representatives of local communities is critical in order to increase their understanding of seasonal forecasts, and to foster their capacities to raise awareness among their communities. The benefits of using relevant climate information at the local level, for example for agriculture, have been highlighted in many studies (Archer 2003;Hansen et al 2011;Ngugi et al 2011). A two-way dialogue between climate experts and local communities (or their representatives) should be launched to build trust and respect.…”