Ensembles of leading European global coupled climate models show impressive reliability for seasonal climate prediction-including useful output for probabilistic prediction of malaria incidence and crop yield.

Background The oral protease inhibitor nirmatrelvir has shown substantial efficacy in high-risk, unvaccinated patients infected with the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Data regarding the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir in preventing severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outcomes from the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant are limited. Methods We obtained data for all members of Clalit Health Services who were 40 years of age or older at the start of the study period and were assessed as being eligible to receive nirmatrelvir therapy during the omicron surge. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates was used to estimate the association of nirmatrelvir treatment with hospitalization and death due to Covid-19, with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, coexisting conditions, and previous SARS-CoV-2 immunity status. Results A total of 109,254 patients met the eligibility criteria, of whom 3902 (4%) received nirmatrelvir during the study period. Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 14.7 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients as compared with 58.9 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.49). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 0.21 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.82). Among patients 40 to 64 years of age, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 15.2 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients and 15.8 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.58). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 1.32 (95% CI, 0.16 to 10.75). Conclusions Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rates of hospitalization and death due to Covid-19 were significantly lower among those who received nirmatrelvir than among those who did not. No evidence of benefit was found in younger adults.

Background: Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission.

The PREADM is designed for use by health plans for early high-risk case identification, presenting discriminatory power better than or similar to that of previously reported models, most of which include data available only upon discharge.

WHAT'S KNOWN ON THIS SUBJECT: Asthma is a clinical condition treated mostly at primary care community clinics. Epidemics of asthma exacerbation occur annually with return to school after summer vacation and have been reported in many countries, including Israel. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS:In 82 234 asthmatic children, unscheduled primary care physician visits and drug prescriptions for asthma exacerbations peaked in September after a summer trough, with a lesser peak in late autumn and fluctuations through the winter months. abstract OBJECTIVES: Seasonal variations in asthma are widely recognized, with the highest incidence during September. This retrospective population study aimed to investigate whether this holds true in a large group of asthmatic children in primary care and to assess the impact of age, gender, urban/rural living, and population sector. METHODS:The key study outcomes were the diagnosis of asthma exacerbations and asthma medication prescriptions, recorded by family physicians during 2005 to 2009. These were analyzed by "week of diagnosis" in Clalit Health Services' electronic medical record database. Regression models were built to assess relative strength of secular trends, seasonality, and age-group in explaining the incidence of asthma exacerbations. RESULTS:A total of 919 873 children aged 2 to 15 years were identified. Of these, 82 234 (8.9%) were asthmatic, 61.6% boys and 38.4% girls; 49.1% aged 2 to 5 years, 24.1% 6 to 9 years, and 26.8% 10 to 15 years. We observed a 2.01-fold increase in pediatric asthma exacerbations and 2.28-fold increase in prescriptions of asthma bronchodilator medications during September (weeks 37-39 vs weeks 34-36) compared with August. The association between the opening of school and the incidence of asthma-related visits to the primary care physician was greatest in children aged 2 to 5 years (odds ratio, 2.15) and 6 to 11 years (1.90-fold). Adolescents (age 12-15 years) had a lesser peak (1.81-fold). In late fall there was a second rise, lasting with fluctuations throughout winter, with a trough in summer.CONCLUSIONS: Returning to school after summer is strongly associated with an increased risk for asthma exacerbations and unscheduled visits to the primary care physician. Pediatrics 2014;133:e923-e932 AUTHORS:

The development of malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum is a complex, multi-stage process. It is usually characterized by an exponential growth in the number of parasite-infected erythrocytes, followed by marked oscillations in this number with a period of 48 h, which are eventually dampened. This course of events has been the subject of various mathematical models. In this paper we propose a new mathematical model for the in-host asexual erythrocytic development of P. falciparum malaria. Synchronicity of the infection is shown to be an inherent feature of infection, irrespective of the duration of merozoite release from the liver. It will, therefore, cause periodic symptoms, as known in malaria patients. We also simulate the effects of an induced host immune response and show how the level of immunity affects the development of disease. The simulations fit well with the clinical observations. We show how infection can become asynchronous and discuss the effect of desynchronization on the circulating and total parasitaemia and demonstrate that synchronized broods will show parasitaemia fluctuations.

Background: The Abuja target of increasing the proportion of people sleeping under insecticidetreated nets (ITNs) to 60% by the year 2005, as one of the measures for malaria control in Africa, has generated an influx of resources for malaria control in several countries in the region. A national household survey conducted in 2005 by the Malaria Control Programme in Nigeria assessed the progress made with respect to ITN ownership and use among pregnant women and children under five years of age since 2000. The survey was the first nationally representative study of ITN use assessing progress towards the Abuja target amongst vulnerable groups.

Although artesunate, one of the potent derivatives of the qinghaosu family of drugs for treating falciparum malaria, is already in use in the field, its therapeutic protocol has only been developed empirically by hit-or-miss. A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model, required for creating such a protocol, is not straightforward. Artesunate presents extremely fast pharmacokinetics. As a result the stage specificity of its action must be treated explicitly. Also, use of standard PK-PD modelling fails to explain the clinical results. Our PK-PD modelling of its activity leads us to the postulation of the existence of a novel effect: a small fraction of the parasites, as a result of chemotherapeutic pressure, become cytostatic, or 'dormant'. At this stage, the parasite cycle is halted, making them unsusceptible to further dosing until wakening. This slows down the antimalarial activity of the drug, entailing either many frequent doses or an extended period of treatment and surveillance. Based on our modelling, we suggest a method for deciding on rational models of chemotherapy against falciparum malaria.