On the 23 March 2020, a country-wide COVID-19 lockdown was imposed on the UK. The following 100 days saw anthropogenic movements quickly halt, before slowly easing back to a “new” normality. In this short communication, we use data from official UK air-quality sensors (DEFRA AURN) and the UK Met Office stations to show how lockdown measures affected air quality in the UK. We compare the 100 days post-lockdown (23 March to 30 June 2020) with the same period from the previous 7 years. We find, as shown in numerous studies of other countries, the nitrogen oxides levels across the country dropped substantially (∼ 50%). However, we also find the ozone levels increased (∼ 10%), and the levels of sulphur dioxide more than doubled across the country. These changes, driven by a complex balance in the air chemistry near the surface, may reflect the influence of low humidity as suggested by Met Office data, and potentially, the reduction of nitrogen oxides and their interactions with multiple pollutants.

(2005) A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model, T E L L U SA forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model A B S T R A C T We discuss a novel three-tier hierarchical approach to the validation of an end-to-end seasonal climate forecast system. We present a malaria transmission simulation model (MTSM) driven with output from the DEMETER multi-model seasonal climate predictions, to produce probabilistic hindcasts of malaria prevalence. These prevalence hindcasts are second-tier validated against estimates from the MTSM driven with ERA-40 gridded analyses. The DEMETER-MTSM prevalence hindcasts are shown to be (tier-2) skilful for the one-month lead seasonal predictions as well as for the period covering the seasonal malaria peak with a 4-6 month forecast window for the event prevalence above the median. Interestingly, the tier-2 Brier skill score for the forecast window of the hindcasts starting in February, for the event prevalence above the median, is higher than for either the tier-1 precipitation or temperature forecasts, which were the MTSM driving variables.

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R50 displays an additional number of vascular poles in its PR, a smaller number of vascular poles in its first-order LR and an altered vasculature in its nodules. It appears that these three characteristics are linked to the high levels of CKs that the mutant accumulates over its development.