Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

Höök, Mikael; Li, Junchen; Johansson, Kersti; Snowden, Simon

doi:10.1007/s11053-011-9162-0

Cited by 55 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The second law states that growth rates change after reaching this materiality and switch to a linear growth profile until the technology settles at its final market share. The threshold of reaching "materiality" when delivering around 1 % of the global energy supply suggested by Kramer and Haigh (2009) coincides with what Höök et al (2012) defines as a global energy system. Wilson et al (2013) compare historical growth rates of energy technologies and find consistent relationships between the growth in cumulative installed capacity and how long the growth takes, following S-shaped growth patterns.…”

Section: Model Parameters 231 Historical Growth Rates Of Energy Syssupporting

confidence: 64%

“…Höök et al (2012) reviewed historical growth rates of energy output from the six energy resources considered as global energy systems, defined as energy sources contributing over 100 Mtoe, or supplying about 1 % of global annual primary energy. These include oil, gas, coal, biomass, hydropower and nuclear power.…”

Section: Model Parameters 231 Historical Growth Rates Of Energy Sysmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

et al. 2014

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PostprintThis is the accepted version of a paper published in Energy Policy. This paper has been peer-reviewed but does not include the final publisher proof-corrections or journal pagination.Citation for the original published paper (version of record): AbstractSeveral recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time frames. A case study is presented modelling potential growth rates of the wind energy required to reach installed capacities proposed in other studies, taking into account the expected service life of wind turbines. A sustained commissioning model is proposed as a theoretical foundation for analysing reasonable growth patterns for technologies that can be sustained in the future. The annual installation and related resource requirements to reach proposed wind capacity are quantified and it is concluded that these factors should be considered when assessing the feasibility, and even the sustainability, of fast energy transitions. Even a sustained commissioning scenario would require significant resource flows, for the transition as well as for sustaining the system, indefinitely. Recent studies that claim there are no potential natural resource barriers or other physical constraints to fast transitions to renewable energy appear inadequate in ruling out these concerns.

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Section: Model Parameters 231 Historical Growth Rates Of Energy Syssupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Model Parameters 231 Historical Growth Rates Of Energy Sysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

et al. 2014

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“…More specifically, wind power accounted for only 0.2% of the global primary energy supply with its 23 Mtoe contribution in while direct solar energy accounted for 0.1% with a 12 Mtoe output (SRREN, 2011). Höök et al (2012).…”

Section: Fossil Fuels In the Global Energy Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fouquet (2010) investigated energy transitions seen in history and found that the whole innovation chain took more than 100 years and the diffusion phase nearly 50 years for new energy sources. Furthermore, the contribution to global energy supply from new energy systems will be marginal at best -even if their development mimics the most extreme growth rates seen in history (Höök et al, 2012). Consequently, quantitative studies indicate that transitions to unconventional hydrocarbons or renewable/alternative energy will be slow and likely not able to smoothly fill the resulting gap as conventional fossil fuels become depleted.…”

Section: A Question Of Development Pacementioning

confidence: 99%

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Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

2013

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Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO 2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind's ability to affect the climate. However, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations.It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems is problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. It is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution.

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The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces

Jewell

Cherp

2023

WIREs Climate Change

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The feasibility of different options to reduce the risks of climate change has engaged scholars for decades. Yet there is no agreement on how to define and assess feasibility. We define feasible as “do‐able under realistic assumptions.” A sound feasibility assessment is based on causal reasoning; enables comparison of feasibility across climate options, contexts, and implementation levels; and reflexively considers the agency of its audience. Global climate scenarios are a good starting point for assessing the feasibility of climate options since they represent causal pathways, quantify implementation levels, and consider policy choices. Yet, scenario developers face difficulties to represent all relevant causalities, assess the realism of assumptions, assign likelihood to potential outcomes, and evaluate the agency of their users, which calls for external feasibility assessments. Existing approaches to feasibility assessment mirror the “inside” and the “outside” view coined by Kahneman and co‐authors. The inside view considers climate change as a unique challenge and seeks to identify barriers that should be overcome by political choice, commitment, and skill. The outside view assesses feasibility through examining historical analogies (reference cases) to the given climate option. Recent studies seek to bridge the inside and the outside views through “feasibility spaces,” by identifying reference cases for a climate option, measuring their outcomes and relevant characteristics, and mapping them together with the expected outcomes and characteristics of the climate option. Feasibility spaces are a promising method to prioritize climate options, realistically assess the achievability of climate goals, and construct scenarios with empirically‐grounded assumptions.This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Representing Uncertainty The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand

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Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

Cited by 55 publications

References 59 publications

Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces

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