Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

Abstract

PostprintThis is the accepted version of a paper published in Energy Policy. This paper has been peer-reviewed but does not include the final publisher proof-corrections or journal pagination.Citation for the original published paper (version of record): AbstractSeveral recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time frames. A case study is presented modelling potential growth rates of the wind energy required to reach installed capacities proposed in other studies, taking into account the expected service life of wind turbines. A sustained commissioning model is proposed as a theoretical foundation for analysing reasonable growth patterns for technologies that can be sustained in the future. The annual installation and related resource requirements to reach proposed wind capacity are quantified and it is concluded that these factors should be considered when assessing the feasibility, and even the sustainability, of fast energy transitions. Even a sustained commissioning scenario would require significant resource flows, for the transition as well as for sustaining the system, indefinitely. Recent studies that claim there are no potential natural resource barriers or other physical constraints to fast transitions to renewable energy appear inadequate in ruling out these concerns.

Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies

“…Some researchers have already considered material constraints for future solar energy applications [9][10][11][12]. There are assessments of natural resource requirements for renewable energy systems, but they often dismiss potential resource constraints on inadequate grounds [13,14].…”

Can Limits to Growth in the Renewable Energy Sector be Inferred by Curve Fitting to Historical Data?

“…Solar and wind represent proven technologies of a certain maturity, but their intermittency represents an obstacle that is held by some to be a fundamental constraint to further 25 growth. These and other constraints have been discussed in many recent papers, e.g., Moriarty and Honnery (2011);Dale et al (2011);Hall et al (2014); Davidsson et al (2014). These outline a large number of restraining factors that that may slow, and possibly halt growth of renewable energies, whose low energy return on investment may negatively impact general economic growth.…”

Putting Phosphorus First: The Need to Know and Right to Know Call for a Revised Hierarchy of Natural Resources

“…At the same time, Germany is pursuing its goal to double raw-material productivity (ratio of total raw material consumption and gross domestic product) by 2020 (compared with the 1994 baseline) [58]. However, renewable energies require more mineral resources per unit of energy output than fossil fuels or nuclear energy [59][60][61]. Their use also entails accepting higher risks.…”