From regional to local scale modelling on the south-eastern Brazilian shelf: case study of Paranaguá estuarine system

Abstract

The applicability of a numerical model following a downscaling methodology was evaluated for the south-eastern Brazilian shelf (regional model) and Paranaguá estuarine system (local model). This approach permits the simulation of different scale processes, such as storm surges and coastal upwelling, and is suitable for operational forecasting purposes. When large areas are covered by regional models, the tidal propagation inside the domain can be significantly affected by the local tidal potential, mainly where the resonance phenomenon is observed. The south-eastern Brazilian shelf is known for the resonance of the third-diurnal principal lunar tidal constituent (M3), the largest amplitudes being found in the Paranaguá estuarine system. Therefore, the significance of the local tidal potential was assessed in this study for the most important tidal constituents inside the estuarine system (including M3). The model validation was performed with tidal gauge data, Argo float profiles and satellite measurements of Sea Surface Temperature. The methodology described in this study can be replicated for other important estuarine systems located on the south-eastern Brazilian shelf. Furthermore, the numerical model was developed within a perspective of operational nowcast/forecast simulations, useful for several activities such as navigation and response to emergencies (e.g., oil spills). Abstract Descriptors:Numerical modelling, Tidal propagation, Resonance phenomenon, Downscaling, South-eastern Brazilian shelf, Paranaguá estuarine system. A aplicabilidade de um modelo numérico seguindo uma metodologia de downscaling foi avaliada para a plataforma sudeste brasileira (modelo regional) e o sistema estuarino de Paranaguá (modelo local). Esta abordagem permite simular fenômenos de escalas diferentes, como maré meteorológica e ressurgência costeira, e é apropriada para fins de previsão operacional. Quando grandes áreas são cobertas por modelos regionais, a propagação da maré no interior do domínio pode ser afetada significativamente pelo potencial local da maré, principalmente onde o fenômeno de ressonância é observado. A plataforma sudeste brasileira é conhecida pela ressonância da constituinte da maré lunar principal terci-diurna (M3), com as maiores amplitudes encontradas no sistema estuarino de Paranaguá. Por este motivo, a significância do potencial local da maré foi verificada neste estudo para as constituintes da maré mais importantes dentro do sistema estuarino (incluindo a M3). A validação do modelo foi realizada com dados de marégrafos, perfis de boias Argo e medições de satélite da temperatura da superfície do mar. A metodologia descrita neste estudo pode ser replicada para outros sistemas estuarinos importantes localizados na plataforma sudeste brasileira. Além disso, o modelo numérico foi desenvolvido na perspectiva de simulações operacionais em nowcast/ forecast, úteis para diversas atividades, como navegação e resposta a emergências (e.g., derrames de petróleo). ResumoDescritores: Modelagem numérica, Propagaçã...

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