Marine eutrophication in the North-East Atlantic (NEA) strongly relies on nutrient enrichment at the river outlets, which is linked to human activities and land use in the watersheds. The question is whether human society can reduce its nutrient emissions by changing land use without compromising food security. A new version of Riverstrahler model (pyNuts-Riverstrahler) was designed to estimate the point and diffuse nutrient emissions (N, P, Si) to the rivers depending on land use in the watersheds across a large domain (Western Europe agro-food systems, waste water treatment). The loads from the river model have been used as inputs to three marine ecological models (PCOMS, ECO-MARS3D, MIRO&CO) covering together a large part of the NEA from the Iberian shelf to the Southern North Sea. The modelling of the land-ocean continuum allowed quantifying the impact of changes in land use on marine eutrophication. Pristine conditions were tested to scale the current eutrophication with respect to a "natural background" (sensu WFD), i.e. forested watersheds without any anthropogenic impact. Three scenarios representing potential management options were also tested to propose future perspectives in mitigating eutrophication. This study shows that a significant decrease in nitrogen fluxes from land to sea is possible by adapting human activities in the watersheds, preventing part of the eutrophication symptoms in the NEA rivers and adjacent coastal zones. It is also shown that any significant achievement in that direction would very likely require paradigmatic changes at social, economic and agricultural levels. This requires reshaping the connections between crop production and livestock farming, and between agriculture and local human food consumption. It also involves cultural changes such as less waste production and a shift towards lower-impact and healthier diets where half of the animal products consumption is replaced by vegetal proteins consumption, known as a demitarian diet (http://www.nine-esf.org/node/281/index.html).

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The characterisation of the water and properties exchanges at the estuary-ocean interface is a key information to understand the estuarine plume influence on coastal circulation and in the generation of haline fronts. In this work, the largest eight Portuguese estuaries were modelled using the MOHID Water numerical model for the period 2010-2016. Water fluxes and associated properties were computed numerically at each of the estuary mouths. These results served to estimate the tidal prisms, tidal flows and to describe the annual evolution of water temperature and salinity. Those fluxes could serve to improve the land boundary conditions for regional ocean models. Moreover, the numerical analysis of the estuarine fluxes allow for the better characterisation of the studied systems, as two neighbouring estuaries could present very different fluxes and water properties. Where available, modelling results were compared with stations near the estuary mouth.

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The hydrodynamics of the TagusROFI (Regions of Freshwater Influence) is affected by the coastal upwelling, the estuarine tidal flow, the thermohaline circulation that is modulated by the Tagus freshwater discharge, and by its complex bathymetry. The use of numerical models is the best way to explain the processes that characterize this region. These models are also crucial to answer important scientific and management questions. Nevertheless, the robustness of the products derived from models depend on their accuracy and therefore models must be validated to determine the uncertainty associated. Time and space variability of the driving forces and of bathymetry enhance flow complexity increasing validation difficulties, requiring continuous high-resolution data to describe flow and thermohaline horizontal and vertical variabilities. In the present work, to increase the precision and accuracy of the coastal processes simulations, the sub-systems coastal area and the Tagus estuary were integrated into a single domain, which considers higher resolution grids in both horizontal and vertical directions. The three-dimensiosal (3D)-MOHID Water model was validated for the TagusROFI by comparing statistically modelling results with in situ and satellite L4 data. Validation with a conductivity, temperature, and depth probe (CTD), an acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) and satellite data was performed for the first time. Validation against tidal gauges showed that the model is able to simulate tidal propagation inside the estuary with accuracy. A very good agreement between CTD data and surface sea water temperature (SST) and salinity simulations was observed. The validation of current direction and velocity from ADCP data also indicated a high model accuracy for these variables. Comparisons between model and satellite for SST also showed that the model produces realistic SSTs and upwelling events. Overall results showed that MOHID setup and parametrisations are well implemented for the TagusROFI domain. These results are even more important when a 3D model is used in simulations due to its complexity once it considers both horizontal and vertical discretization allowing a better representation of the heat and salinity fluxes in the water column. Moreover, the results achieved indicates that 3D-MOHID is robust enough to run in operational mode, including its forecast ability, fundamental to be used as a management tool.

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Freshwater sources are essential inputs for regional ocean models covering coastal areas such as the western Iberian Peninsula. The problem is how to include the mixture between fresh and salt water, typically performed by estuaries and in the adjacent areas of river mouths, without unsustainable increases of computational time and human setup errors. This work provides a proof-of-concept solution to both these problems through the use of an offline two-way methodology, where local schematic rivers and estuaries are responsible for mixing river freshwater with salt water of a regional model application. Two different offline upscaling methodologies—which focus on the implementation of tidal fluxes from local domains to regional domains in the context of operational modelling—are implemented in the Portuguese Coast Operational Modelling System (PCOMS) regional model application as well as in a version without rivers. A comparison between results produced by these methodologies, field data, and satellite imagery was performed, which confirmed that the proposed methodology of using schematic rivers and estuaries, combined with the new offline upscaling methodology proposed herein, represents a good solution for operational modelling of coastal areas subject to a high dominance of freshwater inputs.

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