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A bio-physical model of sardine larvae off the Atlantic Portuguese coast, incorporating a three-dimensional circulation model, was used to estimate changing biomass during winter upwelling and downwelling events. The growth rate of larvae was modelled as a function of age, temperature, and prey concentration and the mortality rate as a function of age and temperature. Numerical results indicate that upwelling events during the spawning season may have a negative impact on larval survival. Total larval biomass seems to be mainly controlled by larval prey relative to temperature. This preliminary study does not account for the dynamics of the food chain and therefore the intense biological activity associated with an upwelling event, as well as the influence of river plumes in retention mechanisms.

This article presents a methodology for simulating the Algarve coastal circulation using realistic forcing (e.g. low-frequency circulation, tide, high-resolution atmospheric forcing). Low-frequency open boundary conditions are defined via a downscaling of the HYCOM-US operational solution for the Gulf of Cadiz. Atmospheric forcing is imposed using the MM5 high-resolution mesoscale model (9 km resolution near the coast). A 3-level nesting system based on the MOHID numerical system is implemented. The higher nesting level has a horizontal resolution of 0.02 along the Algarve coast. The methodology is first validated qualitatively. A comparison between the numerical results and the conceptual model of the circulation described in the literature is presented. A quantitative validation is also performed, based mainly on remote sensing data (sea surface temperature and altimetry) available for July 2004. The numerical system is able to reproduce many of the circulation features described in the literature (e.g. Azores current recirculation in the Gulf of Cadiz, the upwelling jet, Mediterranean Water undercurrent, Mediterranean Outflow splitting, generation of meddies) and observed with remote-sensing data (e.g. the signature in sea surface temperature (SST) during a regime of upwelling relaxation).

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The applicability of a numerical model following a downscaling methodology was evaluated for the south-eastern Brazilian shelf (regional model) and Paranaguá estuarine system (local model). This approach permits the simulation of different scale processes, such as storm surges and coastal upwelling, and is suitable for operational forecasting purposes. When large areas are covered by regional models, the tidal propagation inside the domain can be significantly affected by the local tidal potential, mainly where the resonance phenomenon is observed. The south-eastern Brazilian shelf is known for the resonance of the third-diurnal principal lunar tidal constituent (M3), the largest amplitudes being found in the Paranaguá estuarine system. Therefore, the significance of the local tidal potential was assessed in this study for the most important tidal constituents inside the estuarine system (including M3). The model validation was performed with tidal gauge data, Argo float profiles and satellite measurements of Sea Surface Temperature. The methodology described in this study can be replicated for other important estuarine systems located on the south-eastern Brazilian shelf. Furthermore, the numerical model was developed within a perspective of operational nowcast/forecast simulations, useful for several activities such as navigation and response to emergencies (e.g., oil spills). Abstract Descriptors:Numerical modelling, Tidal propagation, Resonance phenomenon, Downscaling, South-eastern Brazilian shelf, Paranaguá estuarine system. A aplicabilidade de um modelo numérico seguindo uma metodologia de downscaling foi avaliada para a plataforma sudeste brasileira (modelo regional) e o sistema estuarino de Paranaguá (modelo local). Esta abordagem permite simular fenômenos de escalas diferentes, como maré meteorológica e ressurgência costeira, e é apropriada para fins de previsão operacional. Quando grandes áreas são cobertas por modelos regionais, a propagação da maré no interior do domínio pode ser afetada significativamente pelo potencial local da maré, principalmente onde o fenômeno de ressonância é observado. A plataforma sudeste brasileira é conhecida pela ressonância da constituinte da maré lunar principal terci-diurna (M3), com as maiores amplitudes encontradas no sistema estuarino de Paranaguá. Por este motivo, a significância do potencial local da maré foi verificada neste estudo para as constituintes da maré mais importantes dentro do sistema estuarino (incluindo a M3). A validação do modelo foi realizada com dados de marégrafos, perfis de boias Argo e medições de satélite da temperatura da superfície do mar. A metodologia descrita neste estudo pode ser replicada para outros sistemas estuarinos importantes localizados na plataforma sudeste brasileira. Além disso, o modelo numérico foi desenvolvido na perspectiva de simulações operacionais em nowcast/ forecast, úteis para diversas atividades, como navegação e resposta a emergências (e.g., derrames de petróleo). ResumoDescritores: Modelagem numérica, Propagaçã...

During summer (June, July, and August), northerly winds driven by the Azores anticyclone are prevalent over western Iberia. The Quick Scatterometer Satellite 2000 to 2009 summertime estimates reveal a broad high wind speed (≥7 ms−1) area extending about 300 km from shore and along the entire Iberian west coast. Nested in this large high‐speed region, preferred maximum regions anchored in the Iberian major capes, Finisterre, Roca, and S. Vicente, are found. Composite analyses of wind maxima were performed to diagnose the typical summertime synoptic‐scale pressure distribution associated with these smaller size high‐speed regions. The flow low‐level structure was further studied with a mesoscale numerical prediction model for three northerly events characterized by typical summertime synoptic conditions. A low‐level coastal jet, setting the background conditions to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) response to topography, was found in the three cases. The causes for wind maximum downwind capes were investigated, focusing on the hypothesis that western Iberia MABL responds to hydraulic forcing. For the three events supercritical and transcritical flow conditions were identified and expansion fan signatures were found downwind each cape. Aircraft measurements, performed during one of the events, gave additional evidence of the expansion fan leeward Cape Roca. The importance of other forcing mechanisms was also assessed by considering the hypothesis of downslope wind acceleration and found to be in direct conflict with soundings and surface observations.

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