Foreign Policy Change in Latin America: Exploring a Middle-Range Concept

Abstract

This article examines patterns of change and continuity in Latin American foreign policies. It asks two interrelated questions: How can we conceptually and empirically account for foreign policy change? And why do states change their foreign policies in Latin America? To answer these questions, we used the results of a new expert survey on foreign policy preferences in the region between 1980 and 2014. The results we obtained using both linear and nonparametric specifications are very clear and consistent: presidential ideology is what matters the most. Simply put, a change in the ideology of the president produces a change in foreign policy that is almost equivalent in magnitude, all other theoretically relevant factors set to their means. En este artículo, examinamos los patrones de cambio y continuidad en las políticas exteriores de América Latina. Lo hacemos planteando dos preguntas relacionadas: ¿Cómo podemos dar cuenta conceptual y empíricamente del cambio en la política exterior? ¿Por qué los estados en América Latina cambian su política exterior? Para contestar estas preguntas, utilizamos los resultados de una nueva encuesta a expertos sobre las preferencias de política exterior entre 1980 y 2014. Los resultados obtenidos utilizando especificaciones lineales y no-paramétricas son claros y consistentes: la ideología presidencial es lo que más importa. Puesto de manera simple, un cambio en la ideología del presidente produce un cambio en la política exterior que es casi equivalente en su magnitud, ajustando todos los demás factores teóricamente relevantes a sus promedios.

To lead or not to lead: regional powers and regional leadership

“…What has changed, is not Brazil's status but its disposition to pursue regional leadership. This, in turn, is not primarily caused by a change in the ideology of the government-as important this factor might be (Merke et al 2020)-because governments of the (center) right and the left decided to strive for leadership before 2011, and governments of the right and the left have equally become detached from the region afterward. The explanation must be sought in other factors which changed during this critical juncture.…”

Regional patterns of multilateral treaty cooperation: Is there a Latin American ‘commitment gap’?

“…With regard to treaty ratification, most Latin American constitutions formally require the consent of both legislative chambers, but in practice the process is heavily dominated by the executive branch. While in theory this should facilitate ratification, in fact it often leads to erratic foreign policy shifts (Merke et al, 2020). In this sense, common de jure and de facto constitutional rules should contribute to a regional pattern that distinguishes Latin America from other world regions.…”

The effects of presidential breakdowns on foreign policy in Latin America

“…Although they draw attention to this unanswered question, they discuss the subject tangentially. Merke et al (2020) find no overall correlation between such events and foreign policy change (FPC). Marsteintredet (2009) carries out a comparative analysis using a typology to show how the reasons for firing a president are linked to significant changes in policy.…”