Forecasts of Active Life Expectancy: Policy and Fiscal Implications

Mantón, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric; Liu, Korbin

doi:10.1093/geronj/48.special_issue.11

Cited by 59 publications

(24 citation statements)

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“…Manton and Land's (2000) estimate of years of moderate or severe impairment or institutional care is lower for men (1.2 years), but higher for women (3.9 years). Among the higher estimates for people at age 65, Manton, Stallard, and Liu (1993) estimate 2.6 years of disability for men, on average, and 4.9 years for women, using a somewhat broader definition of disability. Several studies have estimated average remaining years of disability for people at age 70, and have yielded an even wider range of estimates (Crimmins, Hayward, andSaito 1994, 1996;Laditka and Wolf 1998;Lubitz et al 2003).…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One applies life tables methods, which estimate people's movement among different functional states to produce population estimates of average expected years in different states (Crimmins, Hayward, andSaito 1994, 1996;Land, Guralnick, and Blazer 1994). Other studies use transition probabilities and microsimulation; they generally apply probabilities of transitions among functional states to simulate life histories for individuals in a specified population (Manton, Stallard, and Liu 1993;Laditka and Wolf 1998;Manton and Land 2000;Lubitz et al 2003). A third approach bases projections on a retrospective survey of the next-of-kin of a sample of decedents that contains information about the decedents' history of disability (Murtaugh, Spillman, and Warshawsky 2001).…”

Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-Term Care over an Uncertain Future: What Can Current Retirees Expect?

Kemper

Komisar²,

Alecxih³

2005

INQUIRY

124

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The leading edge of the baby boom generation is nearing retirement and facing uncertainty about its need for long-term care (LTC). Using a microsimulation model, this analysis projected that people currently turning age 65 will need LTC for three years on average. An important share of needed care will be covered by public programs and some private insurance, but much of the care will be an uninsured private responsibility of individuals and their families-a responsibility that will be distributed unequally. While over a third of those now turning 65 are projected to never receive family care, three out of 10 will rely on family care for more than two years. Similarly, half of people turning 65 will have no private out-of-pocket expenditures for LTC, while more than one in 20 are projected to spend $100,000 or more of their own money (in present discounted value). Policy debate that focuses only on income security and acute care-and the corresponding Social Security and Medicare programs-misses the third, largely private, risk that retirees face: that of needing LTC.

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Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Care over an Uncertain Future: What Can Current Retirees Expect?

Kemper

Komisar²,

Alecxih³

2005

INQUIRY

124

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“…Branch et al 1991;Crimmins et al 1994;Crimmins et al 19%;Guralnik et al 1993;Land et al 1994;Liu et al 1995;Manton et al 1993;Rogers et al 1989;Rogers et al 1990;Tsuji et al 1995).1 Dieses liegt deshalb der folgen den Analyse zugrunde. Dabei wird im Gegensatz zur traditionellen Sterbetafel nach dem Gesund heitszustand zwischen der aktiven und der inakti ven Bevölkerung unterschieden.…”

Section: Methodeunclassified

“…Trotz zahlreicher Modifikationen ist diese, auf die Un tersuchung von Katz und Koautoren zurückge hende, ADL-bezogene Definition aktiven bzw. in aktiven Lebens in empirischen Analysen weit ver breitet (Branch et al 1991;Crimmins et al 1994;Crimmins et al 1996;Guralnik et al 1993;Land et al 1994;Liu et al 1995;Manton et al 1993;Ro gers et al 1989;Rogers et al 1990;Tsuji et al 1995 (Crimmins et al 1996;Land et al 1994). Dieser Interaktionseffekt zwischen Ge schlecht und Gesundheitszustand auf das Mortali tätsrisiko läßt sich auch so interpretieren, daß der Gesundheitseffekt bei Männern geringer ist als bei Frauen.…”

Section: Vorbemerkungenunclassified

Soziale Determinanten der aktiven Lebenserwartung

Klein

1999

Zeitschrift Für Soziologie

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Z u s a m m e n fa ssu n g : Der vorliegende Beitrag präsentiert empirische Ergebnisse zu den sozialen Determinanten der aktiven Lebenserwartung in der Bundesrepublik. Das Konzept der aktiven Lebenserwartung bezieht sich auf die Ana lyse der Pflegebedürftigkeit, wobei sich die Unterscheidung zwischen aktiver und inaktiver Lebenserwartung in dem vorliegenden Beitrag an der sozialen Handlungsfähigkeit orientiert. Die Analyse basiert auf Mehrzustandssterbetafeln, die mit dem Sozio-ökonomischen Panel berechnet wurden. Unter den Ergebnissen ist insbesondere von Bedeutung, daß Männer keineswegs stärker von einer Ehe profitieren als Frauen: Bei Frauen wirkt sich die Ehe sogar deutlich stärker lebensverlängernd aus als bei Männern.

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“…A few studies [4] evaluated the effect of functional health status on mortality in a population of community-dwelling older people, and found that a scale consisting of both basal ADL and instrumental ADL (IADL) items was useful in predicting mortality. Manton and co-workers [12,13] also examined 27 activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, physical performance measures, and life expectancy in a US elderly population in the National LongTerm Care Survey 1982Survey -1994. So far as we know, however, these studies measured only basic ADL and IADL but not higher levels of competence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Level Functional Capacity and 4-Year Mortality in an 80-Year-Old Population

Takata¹,

Ansai²,

Akifusa³

et al. 2006

Gerontology

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Background: Little is known about the relationship between high-level functional capacity and mortality in elderly people. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between high-level functional capacity, such as intellectual activity and social role, and 4-year mortality in a population of 80-year-old community residents. Methods: Participating in the study were 697 individuals (277 males and 420 females) out of 1,282 80-year-old individuals residing in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. To measure high-level functional capacity, the daily activities of 656 of the 697 participants were examined through questionnaires, accompanied by physical and laboratory blood examinations. The 697 participants were followed up for 4 years after the baseline examination. For subjects who died during that period, the date and cause of death were recorded from resident registration cards and official death certificates. Results: The relative risk for all-cause mortality decreased with an increase in intellectual activity or total functional capacity, whereas no association was found between total mortality and either the ability to perform instrumental self-maintenance or the ability to maintain a social role. Similarly, the relative mortality risk due to cardiovascular diseases decreased with an increase in intellectual activity or total functional capacity. Mortality due to pneumonia also decreased with an increase in intellectual activity. Conclusion: In a population of 80-year-old community residents, levels of intellectual activity and total functional capacity may be associated with all-cause, cardiovascular, and pneumonia mortality, and may be strong predictors of survival.

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Forecasts of Active Life Expectancy: Policy and Fiscal Implications

Cited by 59 publications

References 0 publications

Long-Term Care over an Uncertain Future: What Can Current Retirees Expect?

Long-Term Care over an Uncertain Future: What Can Current Retirees Expect?

Soziale Determinanten der aktiven Lebenserwartung

High-Level Functional Capacity and 4-Year Mortality in an 80-Year-Old Population

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