Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

Abstract

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.

A model for yellow fever with migration

“…At this point, it is worthy to mention that our concept of YF risk is different to the one that is given in the work of Massad et al In this paper, the authors consider one infected person entering in a city free of YF, while we consider the opposite, namely, healthy persons going into an environment with YF.…”

“…They found that the risk of urban YF emergence may reach values as high as 29% during the epizootic periods but they found that the precision of the estimate is low. Massad et al designed a method to calculate the density of Aedes aegypti mosquito females using data of dengue disease incidence in Rio de Janeiro neighborhoods and verified that their estimates agreed with those obtained by means of traps. Using these data, they assessed the risk that the introduction of an infectious individual would lead to an epidemic outbreak of YF in Rio de Janeiro.…”

Crystal structure of a novel Kunitz type inhibitor, alocasin with anti‐Aedes aegypti activity targeting midgut proteases

“…Efforts were made in this study to analyze the efficacy of alocasin against (in growth, development, and mortality) Ae. aegypti , the intermediate agent of vector‐borne diseases such as yellow fever and dengue fever in tropical regions . The mortality rate in mosquitoes was monitored for different concentrations of alocasin.…”

A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions

“…The model assumes that a density of infected individual, (0) (see [24]), arrived at = 0 and remains infective for a period of ( + + ) −1 weeks, that is,…”

“…In (11), the value of and / were obtained by the methods described in [24] considering a dengue outbreak. On the other hand, the value of ( ) is obtained by solving the following system:…”