Developing an optimal electricity generation mix for the UK 2050 future

Abstract

The UK electricity sector is undergoing a transition driven by Climate Change policies and envir onmental policies from Europe. Aging electricity generating infrastructure is set to affect capacity margins after 2015.These developments, coupled with the increased proportion of inflexible and variable generation technologies will impact on the security of electricity supply. Investment in low-carbon technologies is central to UK meeting its energy policy objectives. The complexity of these challenges over the future development of the UK electricity sector has motivated this study which aims to develop a policy-informed electricity generation scenario to assess the sector's transition to 2050. The study analyses the level of deployment of electricity generating technologies in line with the 80% by 2050 emission target. This is achieved by using an excel-based "Energy Optimisation Calculator" which captures the interaction of various inputs to produce a least cost generation mix. The key results focus on the least cost electricity generation portfolio, emission intensity, and total investment required to assemble a sustainable electricity generation mix. A carbon neutral electricity sector is feasible if low-carbon technologies are deployed on a large scale. This requires a robust policy framework that supports the development and deployment of mature and emerging technologies.

A Demand-Side Perspective on Developing a Future Electricity Generation Mix: Identifying Heterogeneity in Social Preferences

“…Most programs such as WASP IV, EMCAS, UPLAN, and AURORAxmp use such functions [25,26]. On the other hand, recent studies have considered not only such nominal costs of power generation but also the external costs or policy objectives-such as environmental effects [6][7][8][9], energy security [2,10,11], related risk [3,[12][13][14], future uncertainty [15], and other energy policy goals [16][17][18]-as additional constraints. Most of these studies utilize a multi-objective optimization model or portfolio theory.…”

“…Examples of such external costs include human health problems, environmental degradation, energy security, dangers of a major accident with a power plant, etc. In recent years, recognition and responsibility for such external costs of electricity and their internalization have become an important policy issue [5], and thus, recent studies have proposed an electricity mix developed under various constraints [2,3,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. This context might explain the global phenomenon in which the proportion of renewable energy is increasing even though it has a lower economic feasibility than conventional energy sources.…”

Structuring cumulative effects assessments to support regional and local marine management and planning obligations

“…Addressing these questions requires a balance between flexibility, structure and rigour to aid decision-making in an uncertain environment. Faced with climate change and the imperative to transition to sustainability (see Table 1), MRE can meaningfully contribute to a low carbon energy generation sector [15]. However, there is no consensus about how significant the environmental impacts of MRE are, leading to substantial uncertainties that delay development.…”

Scenario Analysis in the Electric Power Industry under the Implementation of the Electricity Market Reform and a Carbon Policy in China

“…Cai et al [9] proposed pathways for China's power sector up to 2030 in three policy scenarios, which are drawn from energy conservation and CO 2 reduction policies. Using an Excel-based "Energy Optimization Calculator", Sithole et al [10] developed a policy-informed optimal electricity generation scenario in order to assess the sector's transition in 2050. A multi-region optimization planning model [11][12][13][14][15] was applied to analyze the energy transition pathway in the electricity sector.…”