The UK electricity sector is undergoing a transition driven by Climate Change policies and envir onmental policies from Europe. Aging electricity generating infrastructure is set to affect capacity margins after 2015.These developments, coupled with the increased proportion of inflexible and variable generation technologies will impact on the security of electricity supply. Investment in low-carbon technologies is central to UK meeting its energy policy objectives. The complexity of these challenges over the future development of the UK electricity sector has motivated this study which aims to develop a policy-informed electricity generation scenario to assess the sector's transition to 2050. The study analyses the level of deployment of electricity generating technologies in line with the 80% by 2050 emission target. This is achieved by using an excel-based "Energy Optimisation Calculator" which captures the interaction of various inputs to produce a least cost generation mix. The key results focus on the least cost electricity generation portfolio, emission intensity, and total investment required to assemble a sustainable electricity generation mix. A carbon neutral electricity sector is feasible if low-carbon technologies are deployed on a large scale. This requires a robust policy framework that supports the development and deployment of mature and emerging technologies.
The prospects of UK shale gas development and its role in the energy mix has generated contradictory views. Its inclusion in electricity generation is anticipated to help mitigate the grid carbon emissions. However, there is fear that a shale gas 'revolution' might distract policy commitments on the development of low carbon technologies. Others argue that a shale gas 'boom' could potentially create a 'lock-in-effect' on gas generation infrastructures, thus, further exacerbating the burden on carbon emissions. The uncertainty over the future role of shale gas is worsened by lack of clarity and conflicting estimates on the potential gas resource and reserves. In the midst of these uncertainties, this paper seeks to examine transition pathways incorporating shale gas and their implications on electricity sector decarbonisation and energy security objectives
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