Crime, Punishment and Deterrence in Australia: An Empirical Investigation*

Abstract

This paper provides empirical estimates of the determinants of crime rates in Austmlia. It diffws from most modern criminologid analysis by being aggregative rather than offender-based and by deriving from the economic approach to criminal behaviour. Its major finding is that court committals and imphonments have operated as mqior deterrent factors in explaining vanktions in mmnkdcrimenates. Thes?&tmcen?suitsseemespecidfystrong and robust. Improved measurement, however, could alter the findings for some other influences -mined. The paper considers the relationship of these mearch furdigs to criminal just& policy. 1984 CRIME RATES 177 X,,= W + Wi (ti)+ Wa ( T -t t ) -F (ti), and (2)(3) x,= w + w, ( t i ) + w, ( T -Q

Is Baltic Crime Economically Rational?

“…Since then, an extensive empirical literature has attempted to test the central results of the Becker-Ehrlich model for a number of countries. These studies have focused on Canada (Avio and Clarke, 1976), Finland (Wahlroos, 1981), the UK (Car-Hill and Stern, 1973;Wolpin, 1978), Australia (Whithers, 1984;Bodman and Maultby, 1999), the US (Trumbull, 1989;Cornwell and Trumbull, 1994;Baltagi, 2006), New Zealand (Small and Lewis, 1996;Papps and Winkelman, 1998), Italy (Marselli and Vannini, 1997;Buonanno and Leonida, 2006), Sweden (Sandelin and Skogh, 1986), Germany (Entorf and Spengler, 2000), and Norway (Aasness et al, 1994). This formal literature estimates the supply of crime employing different types of data set 1 Professor, PhD (aggregate data, cross-sectional data, and panel data) where the crime rate is related to some deterrence as well as socio-economic and demographic variables.…”

The Importance of Punishment Substitutability in Criminometric Studies

“…In Australia, Withers () was the first study of the economic model of crime, and his work was later extended by Bodman and Maultby (). While novel in terms of applications to Australian data, neither paper specifies the complete economic model of crime as we do.…”

“…We argue that a static specification is inappropriate as changes in law enforcement policies require time to have their full effect, due to habit formation and cost adjustment. 6 In Australia, Withers (1984) was the first study of the economic model of crime, and his work was later extended by Bodman and Maultby (1997). While novel in terms of applications to Australian data, neither paper specifies the complete economic model of crime as we do.…”

Determinants of Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: A Comparative Analysis of Custodial and Socioeconomic Characteristics

“…However, those studies that do exist throw at least some light on the broad issue of criminal deterrence, and the much narrower concern of criminal recidivism, within an Australian context. Withers (1984), for example, used pooled time-series, cross-sectional state-level data to measure the deterrence and incapacitation effect of imprisonment. Withers (1984) concluded that the committal and imprisonment rate were the most reliable determinants of variation in crime, and that pecuniary and attitudinal variables (including unemployment and education) were either statistically insigni®cant or highly sensitive to the speci®cation of included variables.…”

“…Withers (1984), for example, used pooled time-series, cross-sectional state-level data to measure the deterrence and incapacitation effect of imprisonment. Withers (1984) concluded that the committal and imprisonment rate were the most reliable determinants of variation in crime, and that pecuniary and attitudinal variables (including unemployment and education) were either statistically insigni®cant or highly sensitive to the speci®cation of included variables. Bodman and Maultby (1997) likewise estimated an aggregate`supply-of-offences' equation where the crime rate was related to a number of explanatory variables (including economic, demographic and socio-economic factors) representing the costs and bene®ts of criminal behaviour.…”