Historically, lands of recent settlement have had a thirst for immigrants, but one that has been procyclical (negatively related to unemployment rates). For a period in the early 1980s, Australia's major political parties supported high immigration in spite of rising unemployment. This article explores the long-run relationship between immigration and local unemployment, posing the question, “Do migrants rob jobs?” It also seeks to apply long-run historical analysis to recent economic debate: would Australia's unemployment rate have been lower in very recent times without so many immigrants?
The wisdom of maintaining high levels of immigration into Australia has been questioned, particularly on the grounds that migration contributes to aggregate unemployment. This paper uses both statistical causality techniques and conventional structural models to investigate the relationship between immigration and unemployment in the post‐war period in Australia. The tests find no evidence of any association from migration to unemployment, though there is strong evidence of a significant effect of Australian unemployment on migration. The results indicate that immigration policy should not be dictated by unfounded fears of immigration causing unemployment, at least over the range of previous Australian experience.
This paper provides empirical estimates of the determinants of crime rates in Austmlia. It diffws from most modern criminologid analysis by being aggregative rather than offender-based and by deriving from the economic approach to criminal behaviour. Its major finding is that court committals and imphonments have operated as mqior deterrent factors in explaining vanktions in mmnkdcrimenates. Thes?&tmcen?suitsseemespecidfystrong and robust. Improved measurement, however, could alter the findings for some other influences -mined. The paper considers the relationship of these mearch furdigs to criminal just& policy.
1984
CRIME RATES
177
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x,= w + w, ( t i ) + w, ( T -Q
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