Determinants of Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: A Comparative Analysis of Custodial and Socioeconomic Characteristics

Abstract

A multinomial ordered probit model is used to predict post-release performance in a sample of Queensland prisoners released between January 1992 and December 1994. Post-release performance is de®ned in terms of the seriousness of parole breaches and/or reoffences over the length of the parole period or until April 1996. The paper examines the statistical signi®cance of a number of custodial and socioeconomic variables on the likelihood of a parole breach or re-offence. Factors analysed include family composition, age, occupation, ethnicity, the number of events in custody, the number of prison violations and the length of sentence of the most recent custodial episode. All other things being equal, the marginal effects of readmission with respect to the set of explanatory variables varies markedly according to whether readmission is through a parole breach or through actual recidivist behaviour.

Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia*

“…Second, in addition to providing the first panel data results for the effect of temperature shocks on crime rates for Australia as a whole, we provide the first estimates of the effect of global warming on crime rates using Australian data. This contributes to studies in the economics literature that have estimated the effect of climate change on crime rates using US data (see, e.g., Ranson, 2014), as well as a broader social science 2 Our study also connects with a broader literature that has studied the economics of crime using Australian data (see, e.g., Withers, 1984;Masih & Masih, 1996;Bodman & Maultby, 1997;Smyth, 1997;Worthington et al, 2000;Narayan & Smyth, 2004;Bun et al, 2020;Awaworyi Churchill & Smyth, 2022a, b;. Much of this literature has focused on the deterrent effect of punishment.…”

Leximin

“…Unemployment and low wages are compounded for repeat offenders due to having a criminal record, possibly including imprisonment. Some of the literature, however, finds that the effects of unemployment and poor levels of education, among other pecuniary and attitudinal variables, on recidivism are either insignificant or sensitive to specification of the variables (Withers (1984) cited in Worthington, Higgs et al 2000).…”