The Importance of Punishment Substitutability in Criminometric Studies

Abstract

This study investigates the role of punishment substitutability in the empirical estimation of the economic model of crime. Using a dynamic panel data model fitted to a panel of Local Government Areas in New South Wales, Australia, we evaluate the effects of financial penalties and imprisonment on the crime rate. Our results show that crime is clearly a dynamic phenomenon, and that failure to incorporate both financial penalties and imprisonment can lead to a misspecified model. Furthermore, our results vary significantly for different crime categories, highlighting the importance of analysing specific crime categories separately.