Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate

Abstract

BackgroundThere is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors.MethodsWe undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).ResultsSeven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution.ConclusionsBy comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1046-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change

“…Our results are also consistent with Hazen et al (2012) which predicted range increases and poleward shifts for three procellariiform species in the northern Pacific Ocean. Range contraction and poleward shifts have been projected for several groups of marine and terrestrial organisms, including seaweed (Takao et al 2015, Marzloff et al 2016, marine fish (Lenoir et al 2011, Hazen et al 2012, Jones et al 2013, Sunday et al 2015, marine invertebrates (Cheung et al 2009, Stuart-Smith et al 2015, Sunday et al 2015, Marzloff et al 2016, marine mammals (Hazen et al 2012), insects (Beaumont and Hughes 2002, Kwon and Lee 2015, ticks (Williams et al 2015), terrestrial birds (Araújo et al 2005), and trees (Morin andThuiller 2009, Goberville et al 2015). Such changes were also projected to reflect in spatial redistribution of biodiversity with consequences for ecosystem functioning (Constable et al 2014, García Molinos et al 2015, Stuart-Smith et al 2015.…”

Theileria equi-Infektion bei 2 Pferden nach einem Wanderritt in Südfrankreich

“…Somit verdeutlicht dieser Fund auch das Potenzial der Einschleppung infizierter Zecken aus dem Ausland. Rhipicephalus bursa kann sich unter den gegebenen Bedingungen und wahrscheinlich auch unter zukünftigen Klimaszenarien in Deutschland nicht etablieren [27]. Insbesondere in Südwest-bzw.…”

Modeling the potential climate change- induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) tick distribution in semi-arid areas of Raya Azebo district, Northern Ethiopia

“…According to different scholars, studies related to species distribution were carried out at global scale and local scale (Khormi and Kumar, 2014;Lafaye et al, 2013). Climate suitability predictions for tick distribution studies in relation to climate change modeling required to take responsibilities for global and regional distributions maps, e.g., for H. marginatum (Estrada-Peña and Salman, 2013) and R. annulatus (Williams et al, 2015), while modeling climate-induced impacts on the current and future cattle tick distribution like this study are limited at the national scale. On the other way, this paper could have the first approach at the local scale to model future distribution maps for cattle tick species in the light of future climate scenarios.…”