Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans, there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large seabird species of the Southern Ocean (black-browed albatross Thalassarche melanophris, grey-headed albatross T. chrysostoma, northern giant petrel Macronectes halli, southern giant petrel M. giganteus, Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena, wandering albatross D. exulans and white-chinned petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis, and on fishing effort in two types of fisheries (characterised by low or high-bycatch rates), to model the associations with environmental variables (bathymetry, chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature and wind speed) through ensemble species distribution models. We then projected these distributions according to four climate change scenarios built by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change for 2050 and 2100. The resulting projections were consistent across scenarios, indicating that there is a strong likelihood of poleward shifts in distribution of seabirds, and several range contractions (resulting from a shift in the northern, but no change in the southern limit of the range in four species). Current trends for southerly shifts in fisheries distributions are also set to continue under these climate change scenarios at least until 2100; some of these may reflect habitat loss for target species that are already over-fished. It is of particular concern that a shift in the distribution of several highly threatened seabird species would increase their overlap with fisheries where there is a high-bycatch risk. Under such scenarios, the associated shifts in distribution of seabirds and increases in bycatch risk will require much-improved fisheries management in these sensitive areas to minimise impacts on populations in decline.

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Fast climate changes in the western Antarctic Peninsula are reducing krill density, which along with increased fishing activities in recent decades, may have had synergistic effects on penguin populations. We tested that assumption by crossing data on fishing activities and Southern Annular Mode (an indicator of climate change in Antarctica) with penguin population data. Increases in fishing catch during the non-breeding period were likely to result in impacts on both chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarcticus) and gentoo (P. papua) populations. Catches and climate change together elevated the probability of negative population growth rates: very high fishing catch on years with warm winters and low sea ice (associated with negative Southern Annular Mode values) implied a decrease in population size in the following year. The current management of krill fishery in the Southern Ocean takes into account an arbitrary and fixed catch limit that does not reflect the variability of the krill population under effects of climate change, therefore affecting penguin populations when the environmental conditions were not favorable.

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With increasing pressure on the oceans from environmental change, there has been a global call for improved protection of marine ecosystems through the implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs). Here, we used species distribution modelling (SDM) of tracking data from 14 seabird species to identify key marine areas in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, valuing areas based on seabird species occurrence, seasonality and extinction risk. We also compared overlaps between the outputs generated by the SDM and layers representing important human threats (fishing intensity, ship density, plastic and oil pollution, ocean acidification), and calculated loss in conservation value using fishing and ship density as cost layers. The key marine areas were located on the southern Patagonian Shelf, overlapping extensively with areas of high fishing activity, and did not change seasonally, while seasonal areas were located off south and southeast Brazil and overlapped with areas of high plastic pollution and ocean acidification. Non-seasonal key areas were located off northeast Brazil on an area of high biodiversity, and with relatively low human impacts. We found support for the use of seasonal areas depending on the seabird assemblage used, because there was a loss in conservation value for the seasonal compared to the non-seasonal approach when using ‘cost’ layers. Our approach, accounting for seasonal changes in seabird assemblages and their risk of extinction, identified additional candidate areas for incorporation in the network of pelagic MPAs

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Trindade Petrels (Pterodroma arminjoniana) are vulnerable gadfly petrels that breed on the remote Trindade Island, located ~1100 km off the Brazilian coast. Little is known about their spatial ecology, and their trophic ecology has only been described for the breeding season. We tagged four Trindade Petrels with global location sensing loggers (GLS) from October 2013 to November 2014 and sampled the blood and feathers (innermost primary and the eighth secondary) of 14 individuals to evaluate their year‐round spatial and isotopic ecology. We examined individual distributions, habitat use and suitability, activity, and isotopic values during the breeding, migration, and non‐breeding periods. Trindade Petrels used areas in the southwest Atlantic Ocean (between 10°N and 50°S in latitude) during the breeding season. They migrated through pelagic waters of the tropical Atlantic to the northwest Atlantic, where they spent the non‐breeding season. Trindade Petrels used mostly tropical to subtropical waters in areas of intermediate to high wind speeds and low marine productivity. Individuals spent more time foraging at night than during the day. During the breeding season, birds in northerly areas had higher carbon‐13 values, and birds that used more pelagic areas foraged on prey at a higher trophic level (higher nitrogen‐15 values) than those in more southern and coastal areas. Isotopic values during the breeding, migration, and non‐breeding periods differed, possibly due to differences among individuals in their at‐sea distribution throughout the year. We confirmed the non‐breeding distribution of Trindade Petrels, which was previously known only from vessel sightings and stranded birds. Our results also suggest a strong temporal segregation in the at‐sea distribution and trophic ecology between two groups of individuals, which might indicate the existence of two separate breeding populations.

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