Modeling the potential climate change- induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) tick distribution in semi-arid areas of Raya Azebo district, Northern Ethiopia

Hadgu, Meseret; Menghistu, Habtamu Taddele; Girma, Atkilt; Abrha, Haftu; Hagos, Haftom

doi:10.1186/s41610-019-0137-0

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Our results thus highlighted the importance of considering the environment around the sampling point for good estimation of variables in a species distribution model, while single points are commonly considered ( 36 – 44 , 62 ). Our results also showed that the time period considered before the sampling date, with sliding windows, had a significant impact on the performance of the resulting models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…These data summarized climatic conditions from 1950 to 2000. Therefore, in these studies as in many others (36)(37)(38)(39)(40)(41)(42)(43)(44) environmental data were extracted at a resolution that did not match the species ecology and more importantly the environmental conditions at sampling dates. Our goals were thus first to build a model of higher spatial resolution (100 m) for Switzerland and second to use recent climatic data to characterize in detail the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and its associated Chlamydiales bacterial pathogen over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019.…”

Section: Considering the Potential Threat To Human Health Caused By Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nested Species Distribution Models of Chlamydiales in Ixodes ricinus (Tick) Hosts in Switzerland

Rochat

Vuilleumier

Aeby

et al. 2020

Appl Environ Microbiol

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The tick Ixodes ricinus is the vector of various pathogens, including Chlamydiales bacteria, potentially causing respiratory infections. In this study, we modelled the spatial distribution of I. ricinus and associated Chlamydiales over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019. We used a total of 2293 ticks and 186 Chlamydiales occurrences provided by a Swiss Army field campaign, a collaborative smartphone application and a prospective campaign. For each tick location, we retrieved from Swiss federal datasets the environmental factors reflecting the topography, climate and land cover. We then used the Maxent modelling technique to estimate the suitability for I. ricinus and to subsequently build the nested niche of Chlamydiales bacteria. Results indicate that I. ricinus high habitat suitability is determined by higher temperature and vegetation index (NDVI) values, lower temperature during driest months and a higher percentage of artificial and forests areas. The performance of the model was increased when extracting the environmental variables for a 100 m-radius buffer around the sampling points and when considering the climatic conditions of the two years previous to sampling date. For Chlamydiales bacteria, the suitability was favoured by lower percentage of artificial surfaces, driest conditions, high precipitation during coldest months and short distances to wetlands. From 2009 to 2018, we observed an extension of tick and Chlamydiales suitable areas, associated with a shift towards higher altitude. The importance to consider spatio-temporal variations of the environmental conditions for obtaining better prediction was also demonstrated. Importance Ixodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens, including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick borne encephalitis virus and the less known Chlamydiales bacteria at the origin of some respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results provided also the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable informations for decision-makers to control tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establish prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen couples, to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Section: Considering the Potential Threat To Human Health Caused By Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nested Species Distribution Models of Chlamydiales in Ixodes ricinus (Tick) Hosts in Switzerland

Rochat

Vuilleumier

Aeby

et al. 2020

Appl Environ Microbiol

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“…We obtained 19 bioclimatic variables data (at 1 km resolution) for current (1960–1990) and future (2050, 2041–2060, and 2070, 2061–2080) climatic conditions from http://www.worldclim.org under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; Hadgu et al, 2019; Lamsal et al, 2018; Penteriani et al, 2019). RCP4.5 (emissions peaks around 2040 and then decline) provides the intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations, air pollutant emissions, and land‐use changes in the future while RCP8.5 is considered as the high emission scenario (business as usual) that is based on a radiative forcing level of +8.5 W/m 2 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Zahoor

Liu

Ahmad

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Approximately 20%–30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by the end of the 21st century owing to climate change. Range shifts and range contractions in plant species will dramatically affect the distribution of animals relying on them for food and shelter. The negative impacts of climate change on forested landscapes of the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition and distribution. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a forest‐dwelling species, primarily depends on plants for foraging, and is assumed to be affected by climate change in NHP. Scat analyses and indigenous knowledge from Machiara National Park revealed the maximum consumption of Quercus species (natural food) and Zea mays (human grown food) by the Asiatic black bear in autumn season. We collected the occurrence data of the Asiatic black bear and its commonly used food (three Quercus spp.) in the NHP. We used the MaxEnt model to simulate current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distribution of the species under RCP4.5 (medium carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (extreme carbon emission scenario). The results predict range reduction and extreme fragmentation in the habitats of all the Quercus spp. Besides, a dramatic decrease in the suitable (SH) and very highly suitable (HSH) habitats was predicted in the future. Range shift and range reduction of Quercus spp. may interrupt the denning chronology of Asiatic black bears, escalate the human‐black bear conflicts and local extirpation of the species. Given the extent and magnitude of climate change, it will likely not be enough to focus solely on the conservation of the Asiatic black bear. We need more dynamic planning aiming at mitigating the effect of climate change in forested landscapes including the Quercus forests.

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“…In the studies analyzed, more than ten different modeling methods were used to predict vector distribution. The most used method was the Algorithm For Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) [29], followed by GLM [30], genetic algorithms [31], Discriminant Analysis [32], Hot Spots [33], and CLIMEX. Other methods applied with less frequency were the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Boosted Regression Trees [34], BioClim [35], and Random Forests [36].…”

Section: Spatial Models and Variables That Influence Vbd Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review

2022

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Background and Aim: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) constitute a global problem for humans and animals. Knowledge related to the spatial distribution of various species of vectors and their relationship with the environment where they develop is essential to understand the current risk of VBDs and for planning surveillance and control strategies in the face of future threats. This study aimed to identify models, variables, and factors that may influence the emergence and resurgence of VBDs and how these factors can affect spatial local and global distribution patterns. Materials and Methods: A systematic review was designed based on identification, screening, selection, and inclusion described in the research protocols according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guide. A literature search was performed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and SciELO using the following search strategy: Article type: Original research, Language: English, Publishing period: 2010–2020, Search terms: Spatial analysis, spatial models, VBDs, climate, ecologic, life cycle, climate variability, vector-borne, vector, zoonoses, species distribution model, and niche model used in different combinations with "AND" and "OR." Results: The complexity of the interactions between climate, biotic/abiotic variables, and non-climate factors vary considerably depending on the type of disease and the particular location. VBDs are among the most studied types of illnesses related to climate and environmental aspects due to their high disease burden, extended presence in tropical and subtropical areas, and high susceptibility to climate and environment variations. Conclusion: It is difficult to generalize our knowledge of VBDs from a geospatial point of view, mainly because every case is inherently independent in variable selection, geographic coverage, and temporal extension. It can be inferred from predictions that as global temperatures increase, so will the potential trend toward extreme events. Consequently, it will become a public health priority to determine the role of climate and environmental variations in the incidence of infectious diseases. Our analysis of the information, as conducted in this work, extends the review beyond individual cases to generate a series of relevant observations applicable to different models.

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Modeling the potential climate change- induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) tick distribution in semi-arid areas of Raya Azebo district, Northern Ethiopia

Cited by 7 publications

References 58 publications

Nested Species Distribution Models of Chlamydiales in Ixodes ricinus (Tick) Hosts in Switzerland

Nested Species Distribution Models of Chlamydiales in Ixodes ricinus (Tick) Hosts in Switzerland

Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review

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