Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Abstract

Approximately 20%–30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by the end of the 21st century owing to climate change. Range shifts and range contractions in plant species will dramatically affect the distribution of animals relying on them for food and shelter. The negative impacts of climate change on forested landscapes of the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition and distribution. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a forest‐dwelling species, primarily depends on plants for foraging, and is assumed to be affected by climate change in NHP. Scat analyses and indigenous knowledge from Machiara National Park revealed the maximum consumption of Quercus species (natural food) and Zea mays (human grown food) by the Asiatic black bear in autumn season. We collected the occurrence data of the Asiatic black bear and its commonly used food (three Quercus spp.) in the NHP. We used the MaxEnt model to simulate current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distribution of the species under RCP4.5 (medium carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (extreme carbon emission scenario). The results predict range reduction and extreme fragmentation in the habitats of all the Quercus spp. Besides, a dramatic decrease in the suitable (SH) and very highly suitable (HSH) habitats was predicted in the future. Range shift and range reduction of Quercus spp. may interrupt the denning chronology of Asiatic black bears, escalate the human‐black bear conflicts and local extirpation of the species. Given the extent and magnitude of climate change, it will likely not be enough to focus solely on the conservation of the Asiatic black bear. We need more dynamic planning aiming at mitigating the effect of climate change in forested landscapes including the Quercus forests.

Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China

“…Therefore, predicting the response from species to climate change, especially their potential habitats distribution, can be regarded as a great effort to help the planning and decision-making to improve the sustainability and adaptability of ecosystems [58]. Previous studies have shown that various plants and animal species can transfer suitable areas to high altitude and high latitude regions, so as to avoid the adverse effects of extreme weather and utilize available climate resources [59][60][61][62]. In order to formulate countermeasures to adapt to climate change, it is necessary to predict the impact of climate change on the potential distribution pattern of species [63].…”

Activity pattern of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in Machiara National Park, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

“…Previous studies reported high intensities of human black bears con icts in Pakistan (Ali et al 2017; Kazmi et al 2019;Waseem et al 2020;Zahoor et al 2021c;Zahoor et al 2021d), however, there is no study available on activity pattern of black bears. In Taiwan, it was reported that in oak poor season, bears activity decreased and vice versa (Hwang and Garshelis 2007).…”

“…(ii) Maize crop is much nutritious, and milky in nature(Zahoor et al 2021c) and its ripening in September attracts black bears to reside at the fringes of forest, from where they could raid nearby maize crop elds easily. Beside Quercus spp Zahoor et al (2021d). reported the 2nd highest proportion of Zea mays in the scats of black bears during autumn in Machiara National Park.…”

“…In Taiwan, it was reported that in oak poor season, bears activity decreased and vice versa (Hwang and Garshelis 2007). Social stimulus, competition, predation, maternal behavior, and human disturbances (i.e., habitat degradation, hunting, and tourism) are also reported to affect the activity patterns in animals ( Similarly, indigenous knowledge is the source of indirect information gathered from the people who usually interact with the wild animals, particularly in the areas like northern Pakistan, where human interferences are very high (Zahoor et al 2021d). People often go to the forests for the collection of rewood, timber and medicinal plants and sometimes for hunting.…”

“…The Asiatic black bear is categorized as vulnerable under the IUCN red list of threatened species and considered as critically endangered species in Pakistan with population of 1000 individuals (Liu et (Liu et al 2009;Trent, 2010;Zahoor et al 2021d). Being an elusive and indicator species, it plays a vital role in the sustainability of an ecosystem (Sathyakumar et al 2013).…”