Ecological response of an umbrella species to changing climate and land use: Habitat conservation for Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan‐Chongqing Region, Southwestern China

Abstract

Climate and land use changes are increasingly recognized as major threats to global biodiversity, with significant impacts on wildlife populations and ecosystems worldwide. The study of how climate and land use changes impact wildlife is of paramount importance for advancing our understanding of ecological processes in the face of global environmental change, informing conservation planning and management, and identifying the mechanisms and thresholds that underlie species' responses to shifting climatic conditions. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is a prominent umbrella species in a biodiversity hotspot in Southwestern China, and its conservation is vital for safeguarding sympatric species. However, the extent to which this species' habitat may respond to global climate and land use changes is poorly understood, underscoring the need for further investigation. Our goal was to anticipate the potential impacts of upcoming climate and land use changes on the distribution and dispersal patterns of the Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region. We used MaxEnt modeling to evaluate habitat vulnerability using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios of climate and land use changes. Subsequently, we used Circuit Theory to identify prospective dispersal paths. Our results revealed that the current area of suitable habitat for the Asiatic black bear was 225,609.59 km 2 (comprising 39.69% of the total study area), but was expected to decrease by −53.1%, −49.48%, and −28.55% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 projection scenarios, respectively. Across all three GCMs, the distribution areas and dispersal paths of the Asiatic black bear were projected to shift to higher altitudes and constrict by the 2070s. Furthermore, the results indicated that the density of dispersal paths would decrease, while the resistance to dispersal would increase across the study area. In order to protect the Asiatic black bear, it is essential to prioritize the protection of climate refugia and dispersal paths.Our findings provide a sound scientific foundation for the allocation of such protected areas in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region that are both effective and adaptive in the face of ongoing global climate and land use changes.

Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

“…This threshold is considered simple and effective in determining modeled species’ presence/absence maps ( Huang et al., 2022 ). Areas with suitability values greater than MTSPS were considered suitable for the species ( Dai et al., 2023 ). The distribution areas were divided into unsuitable habitat (0 – MTSPS), lowly suitable habitat (MTSPS – 0.6), moderately suitable habitat (0.6 – 0.7), and highly suitable habitat (0.7 – 1.0) according to the suitable probability using the ArcGIS reclassification function.…”

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications

“…These projections are typically derived from climate models and represent different potential future climates under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios [ 58 , 59 ]. By applying these future climate scenarios to the MaxEnt model, researchers can predict how the distribution of species may shift in response to changing climatic conditions [ 60 , 61 , 62 , 63 , 64 ].…”