Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

Li, Jianling; Deng, Changrong; Duan, Guozhen; Wang, Zhanlin; Zhang, Yede; Fan, Guanghui

doi:10.3389/fpls.2023.1279019

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 67 publications

(78 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We found that the expansion-suitable regions were mainly distributed in the northeast and northwest of the current ranges. This phenomenon of thermophilic plants expanding towards higher latitudes in response to climate warming has been widely documented, with examples including Lycium barbarum L. [45], Litsea cubeba (Lour.) Pers [46], and Agastache rugosa (Fisch.…”

Section: Habitat Distribution Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The topsoil data were obtained from the World Soil Database (Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2, http://www.fao.org/soilsportal/, assessed on 16 January 2024) and converted to ASCII format using ArcGIS, which contained 17 soil variables. Due to lack of future soil data, the future soil layers were considered to be consistent with the current over such a short time frame in this study [45].…”

Section: Acquisition and Processing Of Chili Pepper Distribution Poin...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forty RMs (0.1-4.0 at an interval of 0.1) and 31 FCs combinations were used to generated 1240 candidate modes, and these modes were evaluated using Kuenm based on the screening environmental The topsoil data were obtained from the World Soil Database (Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2, http://www.fao.org/soilsportal/, assessed on 16 January 2024) and converted to ASCII format using ArcGIS, which contained 17 soil variables. Due to lack of future soil data, the future soil layers were considered to be consistent with the current over such a short time frame in this study [45].…”

Section: Optimization and Evaluation Of Maxent Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The prediction results (ASCII files) output by the optimal MaxEnt were reclassified and visualized using ArcGIS. The average logistic threshold value of maximum training sensitivity plus specificity (MTSPS) output by MaxEnt based on the current environmental variables was used to classify these results into suitability and unsuitability for chili pepper [45]. According to the suitable probability, the regions for chili pepper cultivation were divided into unsuitable habitat (0-MTSPS), lowly suitable habitat (MTSPS-0.4), moderately suitable habitat (0.4-0.6), and highly suitable habitat (0.6-1) using the reclassification function of ArcGIS.…”

Section: Reclassification and Calculation Of Suitable Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the suitable probability, the regions for chili pepper cultivation were divided into unsuitable habitat (0-MTSPS), lowly suitable habitat (MTSPS-0.4), moderately suitable habitat (0.4-0.6), and highly suitable habitat (0.6-1) using the reclassification function of ArcGIS. The proportion of each habitat to China overall was calculated based on its grid number, and the area of each habitat was calculated according to China's land area [45].…”

Section: Reclassification and Calculation Of Suitable Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Potential Suitable Habitats of Chili Pepper in China under Climate Change

Deng,

Zhong,

Shao

et al. 2024

Plants

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Chili pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) is extensively cultivated in China, with its production highly reliant on regional environmental conditions. Given ongoing climate change, it is imperative to assess its impact on chili pepper cultivation and identify suitable habitats for future cultivation. In this study, the MaxEnt model was optimized and utilized to predict suitable habitats for open-field chili pepper cultivation, and changes in these habitats were analyzed using ArcGIS v10.8. Our results showed that the parameter settings of the optimal model were FC = LQPTH and RM = 2.7, and the critical environmental variables influencing chili pepper distribution were annual mean temperature, isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats were distributed across all provinces in China, with moderately- and highly-suitable habitats concentrated in the east of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats was expected to be larger than the current ones, except for SSP126-2050s, and reached the maximum under SSP126-2090s. The overlapping suitable habitats were concentrated in the east of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau under various climate scenarios. In the 2050s, the centroids of suitable habitats were predicted to shift towards the southwest, except for SSP126, whereas this trend was reversed in the 2090s. Our results suggest that climate warming is conductive to the cultivation of chili pepper, and provide scientific guidance for the introduction and cultivation of chili pepper in the face of climate warming.

show abstract

Section: Habitat Distribution Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Acquisition and Processing Of Chili Pepper Distribution Poin...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Optimization and Evaluation Of Maxent Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Reclassification and Calculation Of Suitable Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Reclassification and Calculation Of Suitable Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Potential Suitable Habitats of Chili Pepper in China under Climate Change

Deng,

Zhong,

Shao

et al. 2024

Plants

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution of Liriodendron chinense (Hemsl.) Sarg. in China Based on Future Climate Change Using the Optimized MaxEnt Model

Bai,

Wang,

2024

Forests

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Liriodendron chinense (Hemsl.) Sarg. (Magnoliales: Magnoliaceae), valued for its medicinal properties and timber and as an ornamental plant, is now classified as an endangered species. Investigating how future climate-change scenarios might affect the potential geographic distribution of L. chinense will provide a crucial scientific basis for its protection and management strategies. The MaxEnt model was calibrated using the ENMeval optimization package, and then it was coupled with ArcGIS 10.8 to forecast the possible distribution areas of L. chinense in China, utilizing elevation data, bioclimatic factors, and human footprint as environmental variables. The results indicate: (1) The optimal model parameters were set as follows: FC = LQ, RM = 0.5, the MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy and minimal overfitting; (2) The total suitable habitat area for the potential geographical distribution of L. chinense during the current period is estimated at 151.55 × 104 km2, predominantly located in central, eastern, and southwestern regions of China; (3) The minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), elevation (alt), and human footprint (hf) are the main environmental variables determining the suitable habitat distribution of L. chinense; (4) During the period from 2041 to 2060, under the carbon emission scenarios of SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370, the suitable habitat for L. chinense shows varying degrees of increase compared to the current period. However, under the highest concentration scenario of SSP585, the suitable habitat area decreases to some extent; (5) The distribution of L. chinense is likely to move towards higher latitudes and elevations in the future due to changes in the climate. This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on L. chinense, offering valuable information for its protection and management under future climatic conditions.

show abstract

Predicting the Distribution of Neoceratitis asiatica (Diptera: Tephritidae), a Primary Pest of Goji Berry in China, under Climate Change

Song,

Fan,

Deng

et al. 2024

Insects

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate warming affects the growth and development of pests, resulting in changes in their geographical distribution, which increases the difficulty in terms of prevention and control. The fruit fly, Neoceratitis asiatica (Becker), is a predominant frugivorous pest that causes serious yield loss in the goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. In recent years, with the expansion of cultivation area, the damage induced by the pest has become increasingly severe, significantly impeding the production of the goji berry. In this study, the potential suitable habitats of N. asiatica under current and future climate scenarios were simulated and predicted using the optimal MaxEnt model, based on the screening distribution records and environmental factors. The changes in the pest distribution under climate change were determined using ArcGIS. The results showed that the best combination of parameters for MaxEnt were feature combination (FC) = LQPT and regularization multiplier (RM) = 1. The dominant environmental factors influencing pest distribution were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. Under different climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the pest primarily ranged between 27°–47° N and 73°–115° E. Under current climate conditions, the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats was 42.18 × 104 km2, and mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia (13.68 × 104 km2), Gansu (9.40 × 104 km2), Ningxia (5.07 × 104 km2), Qinghai (4.10 × 104 km2), and Xinjiang (3.97 × 104 km2) Provinces. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was projected to be lower than the current ones, except SSP245–2050s and SSP370–2070s, and the centroids of suitable habitats were mainly shifted to the northeast, except SSP370–2050s and SSP585–2070s. Our results provide valuable guidance for the monitoring and management of N. asiatica, as well as the selection of pest-free goji berry cultivation sites.

show abstract

Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

Cited by 3 publications

References 67 publications

Potential Suitable Habitats of Chili Pepper in China under Climate Change

Potential Suitable Habitats of Chili Pepper in China under Climate Change

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution of Liriodendron chinense (Hemsl.) Sarg. in China Based on Future Climate Change Using the Optimized MaxEnt Model

Predicting the Distribution of Neoceratitis asiatica (Diptera: Tephritidae), a Primary Pest of Goji Berry in China, under Climate Change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About