Climate factors and incidence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus

Abstract

a b s t r a c tBackground: Our understanding of climate factors and their links to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks is incomplete. This study aimed to estimate the monthly incidence of MERS-CoV cases and to investigate their correlation to climate factors. Methods: The study used aggregated monthly MERS-CoV cases that reported to the Saudi Center for Disease Prevention and Control from the Riyadh Region between November 1, 2012 and December 31, 2018. Data on the meteorological situation throughout the study period was calculated based on Google reports on the Riyadh Region (24.7136 • N, 46.6753 • E). The Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and its 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each climate factor. Results: A total of 712 MERS-CoV cases were included in the analysis (mean age 54.2 ± 9.9 years), and more than half (404) (56.1%) MERS-CoV cases were diagnosed during a five-month period from . High temperatures (IRR = 1.054, 95% CI: 1.043-1.065) and a high ultraviolet index (IRR = 1.401, 95% CI: 1.331-1.475) were correlated with a higher incidence of MERS-CoV cases. However, low relative humidity (IRR = 0.956, 95% CI: 0.948-0.964) and low wind speed (IRR = 0.945, 95% CI: 0.912-0.979) were correlated with a lower incidence of MERS-CoV cases. Conclusion: The novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV, is influenced by climate conditions with increasing incidence between April and August. High temperature, high ultraviolet index, low wind speed, and low relative humidity are contributors to increased MERS-CoV cases. The climate factors must be evaluated in hospitals and community settings and integrated into guidelines to serve as source of control measures to prevent and eliminate the risk of infection.

Meteorological factors correlate with transmission of 2019-nCoV: Proof of incidence of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Hubei Province, China

“…It is generally believed that seasonality is the manifestation of respiratory diseases related to meteorological factors. At present, MERS is considered to be seasonal (Nassar et al, 2018), and meteorological factors (high temperature, high ultraviolet index, low wind speed and low RH) are also found to be the cause of the increase in MERS-CoV cases (Altamimi et al, 2019 ). Research on the relationship between meteorological factors and SARS shows that the number of daily cases is negatively correlated with the highest and/or lowest temperatures and the air pressure is positively correlated with SARS transmission (Bi et al,2007).…”

COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis

“…Respiratory droplets and person-to-person contact are the major routes of transmission of the coronavirus [5]. Environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity may influence the transmissions of coronavirus [6] by affecting the survival of the virus in its transmission routes, there has evidence for severe acute respiratory coronavirus (SARS-CoV) [7,8] and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) [9,10]. Whether and how meteorological factors affecting the spread of COVID-19 has so far not been investigated.…”

Investigating a Serious Challenge in the Sustainable Development Process: Analysis of Confirmed cases of COVID-19 (New Type of Coronavirus) Through a Binary Classification Using Artificial Intelligence and Regression Analysis

“…The flu virus spreads quickly in cold and dry conditions, while it is completely inactive at temperatures above 30 • C [16,17]. However, the epidemic of one type of coronavirus, MERS-CoV, was between April and August, which meant that the virus spread quickly in warm temperature, low wind speed, low relative humidity, and high ultraviolet index [18].…”