Investigating a Serious Challenge in the Sustainable Development Process: Analysis of Confirmed cases of COVID-19 (New Type of Coronavirus) Through a Binary Classification Using Artificial Intelligence and Regression Analysis

Abstract

Nowadays, sustainable development is considered a key concept and solution in creating a promising and prosperous future for human societies. Nevertheless, there are some predicted and unpredicted problems that epidemic diseases are real and complex problems. Hence, in this research work, a serious challenge in the sustainable development process was investigated using the classification of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (new version of Coronavirus) as one of the epidemic diseases. Hence, binary classification modeling was used by the group method of data handling (GMDH) type of neural network as one of the artificial intelligence methods. For this purpose, the Hubei province in China was selected as a case study to construct the proposed model, and some important factors, namely maximum, minimum, and average daily temperature, the density of a city, relative humidity, and wind speed, were considered as the input dataset, and the number of confirmed cases was selected as the output dataset for 30 days. The proposed binary classification model provides higher performance capacity in predicting the confirmed cases. In addition, regression analysis has been done and the trend of confirmed cases compared with the fluctuations of daily weather parameters (wind, humidity, and average temperature). The results demonstrated that the relative humidity and maximum daily temperature had the highest impact on the confirmed cases. The relative humidity in the main case study, with an average of 77.9%, affected positively, and maximum daily temperature, with an average of 15.4 • C, affected negatively, the confirmed cases.

Development of an Assessment Method for Investigating the Impact of Climate and Urban Parameters in Confirmed Cases of COVID-19: A New Challenge in Sustainable Development

“…To carry out the analysis, the dataset of three regions in Italy, namely Lombardy (Milan), Veneto (Venice), and Emilia-Romagna (Bologna), are displayed in Table 1, and the location of the case studies is shown in Figure 1. The lockdown could affect the trend of positive cases, and after around 13-14 days from full lock down the number of confirmed cases is expected to decrease, as mentioned in a previous study by [22]. The dates of quarantine in Italy can be seen in Table 2.…”

“…They used an artificial intelligence algorithm to investigate several case studies. They found that there is a meaningful relationship between confirmed COVID-19 cases and environmental factors (urban and climate parameters) [22].…”

SEIR and Regression Model based COVID-19 outbreak predictions in India

“…Polynomial regression is a special type of regression which works on the curvilinear relationship between the dependent values and independent values. Equation 8 shows the relationship between a dependent and independent variable in polynomial regression. In Equation 8, x is the independent variable and is the bias also the intercept and , , ……, are the weight or partial coefficients assigned to the predictors and n is the degree of polynomial.…”

“…They have reviewed research papers based on deterministic mass action models, regression models, prediction rules, Bayesian network, SEIR model, ARIMA forecasting model etc. Recent studies on COVID-19 include only exploratory analysis of the available limited data [8][9][10]. Effective and well-tested vaccine against CoVID-19 has not been invented and hence a key part in managing this pandemic is to decrease the epidemic peak, also known as flattening the epidemic curve.…”

Development of a Novel, Genome Subtraction-Derived, SARS-CoV-2-Specific COVID-19-nsp2 Real-Time RT-PCR Assay and Its Evaluation Using Clinical Specimens

“…The case fatality rate estimate ranged from about 1% in resource-rich settings, to up to 12% in epicentres [6]. Multiple clinical trials evaluating known and novel pharmacological agents have been in progress [7][8][9][10], and innovative epidemiological modelling and mechanistic exploratory studies have also been made available [11][12][13][14]; at the time of writing, there is no effective antiviral therapy of proven clinical benefit.…”