Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 2 Title: COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis Abstract COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily count of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei fromGeneralized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods.In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1°C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04°C to 8.2°C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout MainlandChina.

COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 if of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily count of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei fromAdditive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1°C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04°C to 8.2°C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.

BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become an emerging infectious disease in China in the last decade. There has been evidence that meteorological factors can influence the HFMD incidence, and understanding the mechanisms can help prevent and control HFMD.MethodsHFMD incidence data and meteorological data in Minhang District, Shanghai were obtained for the period between 2009 and 2015. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were utilized to investigate the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence after adjusting for potential confounders of long time trend, weekdays and holidays.ResultsThere was a non-linear relationship between temperature and HFMD incidence, the RR of 5th percentile compared to the median is 0.836 (95% CI: 0.671–1.042) and the RR of 95th percentile is 2.225 (95% CI: 1.774–2.792), and the effect of temperature varied across age groups. HFMD incidence increased with increasing average relative humidity (%) (RR = 1.009, 95% CI: 1.005–1.015) and wind speed (m/s) (RR = 1.197, 95% CI: 1.118–1.282), and with decreasing daily rainfall (mm) (RR = 0.992, 95% CI: 0.987–0.997) and sunshine hours (h) (RR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.951–0.980).ConclusionsThere were significant relationships between meteorological factors and childhood HFMD incidence in Minhang District, Shanghai. This information can help local health agencies develop strategies for the control and prevention of HFMD under specific climatic conditions.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0388-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an important public health problem. A monovalent EV-A71 vaccine was launched in China in 2016. Previous studies showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines were highly efficient against HFMD associated with EV-A71 but not against HFMD with other etiologies, leading to a hypothesis that the introduction of EV-A71 vaccines might change the pathogen spectrum and epidemiological trend of HFMD. In this study, we described for the first time the changing epidemiological characteristics of HFMD after the launch of the EV-A71 vaccine.Methods We extracted individual-based epidemiological data on HFMD cases reported to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between January 2013 and December 2019. We described the changing epidemiological characteristics of HFMD before and after vaccine launch according to the distribution of diseases characteristics (demographic, temporal, and geographical) and evaluated the potential changes in risk factors of severe patients. All analyses were stratified by the phase before and after vaccine launch, and by enterovirus serotype.Findings During 2013À2019, 15,316,710 probable cases of HFMD were reported. Of these, 787,197 (5¢1%) were laboratory confirmed and 76,982 (0¢5%) were severe. After the launch of the EV-A71 vaccine, the median age of HFMD patients infected with EV-A71 increased from 2¢24 years (IQR:1¢43, 3¢56) to 2¢81 years (IQR:1¢58, 4¢01). The proportion of patients less than 3 years of age decreased while the proportion of patients 3À5 years of age increased. There was a large decrease (60¢7%) in the proportion of severe cases as well as a decline (28¢3%) in HFMD patients infected with EV-A71. After the launch of the EV-A71 vaccine, the severe illness rate and mortality rate of HFMD patients in all age groups has decreased sharply, 62¢20% and 83¢78% respectively. The timing of the HFMD epidemic peak was delayed (1-2 months) . After the launch of EV-A71 vaccine, the risk of becoming a severe case for EV-A71 serotype was decreased, whereas that risk was instead increased for CV-A16 (from 0¢17 (95% CI:0¢16, 0¢18) to 0¢23 (95% CI:0¢21, 0¢25)) and other enterovirus compared to EV-A71 (from 0¢38 (95% CI:0¢37, 0¢39) to 0¢58 (95% CI:0¢56, 0¢61)). The longer the time from onset to diagnosis, the higher was the risk of being a severe case, but the effect size was decreased.Interpretation The introduction of the EV-A71 vaccine has effectively reduced the proportion of severe HFMD cases and mortality, but changes to the dominant serotypes should be closely monitored. Development of multivalent vaccines to avoid an increased case burden due to other enteroviruses is greatly needed.

Background In early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented in China to reduce and contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. These NPIs might have also reduced the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). Methods The weekly numbers of HFMD cases and meteorological factors in 31 provincial capital cities and municipalities in mainland China were obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) and National Meteorological Information Center of China from 2016 to 2020. The NPI data were collected from local CDCs. The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for the entire year of 2020, and for January–July 2020 and August–December 2020. The expected case numbers were estimated using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. The relationships between kindergarten closures and incidence of HFMD were quantified using a generalized additive model. The estimated associations from all cities were pooled using a multivariate meta-regression model. Findings Stringent NPIs were widely implemented for COVID-19 control from January to July 2020, and the IRRs for HFMD were less than 1 in all 31 cities, and less than 0·1 for 23 cities. Overall, the proportion of HFMD cases reduced by 52·9% (95% CI: 49·3−55·5%) after the implementation of kindergarten closures in 2020, and this effect was generally consistent across subgroups. Interpretation The decrease in HFMD incidence was strongly associated with the NPIs for COVID-19. HFMD epidemic peaks were either absent or delayed, and the final epidemic size was reduced. Kindergarten closure is an intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Funding This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81973102 & 81773487), Public Health Talents Training Program of Shanghai Municipality (GWV-10.2-XD21), the Shanghai New Three-year Action Plan for Public Health (GWV-10.1-XK16), the Major Project of Scientific and Technical Winter Olympics from National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFF0306000), 13th Five-Year National Science and Technology Major Project for Infectious Diseases (2018ZX10725-509) and Key projects of the PLA logistics Scientific research Program (BHJ17J013).

Background The added value of radiotherapy following neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX chemotherapy in patients with resectable or borderline resectable pancreatic cancer ((B)RPC) is unclear. The objective of this meta-analysis was to compare outcomes of patients who received neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX alone or combined with radiotherapy. Methods A systematic literature search was performed in Embase, Medline (ovidSP), Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane, and Google Scholar. The primary endpoint was pooled median overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints included resection rate, R0 resection rate, and other pathologic outcomes. Results We included 512 patients with (B)RPC from 15 studies, of which 7 were prospective nonrandomized studies. In total, 351 patients (68.6%) were treated with FOLFIRINOX alone (8 studies) and 161 patients (31.4%) were treated with FOLFIRINOX and radiotherapy (7 studies). The pooled estimated median OS was 21.6 months (range 18.4–34.0 months) for FOLFIRINOX alone and 22.4 months (range 11.0–37.7 months) for FOLFIRINOX with radiotherapy. The pooled resection rate was similar (71.9% vs. 63.1%, p = 0.43) and the pooled R0 resection rate was higher for FOLFIRINOX with radiotherapy (88.0% vs. 97.6%, p = 0.045). Other pathological outcomes (ypN0, pathologic complete response, perineural invasion) were comparable. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, radiotherapy following neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX was associated with an improved R0 resection rate as compared with neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX alone, but a difference in survival could not be demonstrated. Randomized trials are needed to determine the added value of radiotherapy following neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX in patients with (B)PRC.

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