Quantifying the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) attributable to meteorological factors in East China: A time series modelling study

Qi, Hongchao; Yu, Li; Zhang, Jun; Chen, Yue; Lee, Hyewon; Xiao, Shuang; Hu, Jian; Wang, Wenge; Zhang, Wenyi; Hu, Yi; Li, Zhongjie; Zhang, Zhijie

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138548

Cited by 25 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Measures of attributable risk are an integral part of epidemiological analyses, particularly when aimed at the planning and evaluation of public health interventions [26,27,32]. It was presented in our results that the overall attributable fraction of HFMD incidence due to hot temperatures (39.55%) was significantly higher than that due to cold temperatures (5.23%).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…Several previous studies have shed light on the effect of meteorological factors such as temperature on HFMD [4-9, 19, 30]. However, the results have shown that the association between the incidence of HFMD and temperature varied with different regions [25,[30][31][32][33][34][35]. Chen et al [36] found that the occurrence of HFMD epidemics was bimodal in Wuhan, one peak occurred when the monthly average temperature was below 15℃ during autumn-winter and the other occurred when the monthly average temperature exceeds 25℃ in summer.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

Zhang

Lin

Zhang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Many studies have reported the association between environmental temperature and HFMD. However, the results are highly heterogeneous in different regions. In addition, there are few studies on the attributable risk of HFMD.Objectives: The study aimed to assess the association between temperature and HFMD incidence and to evaluate the attributable burden of HFMD in Ningbo China.Methods: The research used daily incidence of HFMD from 2014 to 2017 and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to investigate the effects of daily mean temperature (Tmean) on HFMD incidence from lag 0 to 30 days, after controlling potential confounders. The lag effects and cumulative relative risk (CRR) were analyzed. Attributable fraction (AF) of HFMD incidence due to temperature was calculated. Stratified analysis by age and gender were also conducted.Results: The Significant associations between Tmean and HFMD incidence were observed in Ningbo for lag 0-30. Two peaks were observed at both low (5°C -11°C ) and high (16°C -29°C ) temperature scales. For low temperature scale, the highest CRR was 2.22% (95% CI: 1.61-3.07) at 7°C on lag 0-30. For high temperature scale, the highest CRR was 3.54% (95% CI: 2.58-4.88) at 24°C on lag 0-30. The AF of low and high temperature was 5.23% (95% CI: 3.10-7.14) and 39.55% (95% CI: 30.91-45.51), respectively. There was no significant difference between gender- and age-specific AFs, even though the school-age and female children had slightly higher AF values.Conclusions: The result indicates that both high and low temperatures were associated with daily incidence of HFMD, and more burdens were caused by heat in Ningbo.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

Zhang

Lin

Zhang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this study, we found that extreme high temperature was associated with a significant decrease in the risk of PTB at provincial level, although only two prefecture-level cities had found an effect of extreme high temperature on PTB. Epidemiological study has demonstrated that extreme temperature could affect the risk of mortality [31,32], acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions [33], cardiovascular emergency hospitalizations [34], injury [35], infectious diseases (such as, mumps [10], hand-foot-mouth disease [11,36]), etc. In recent years, temperature has been acknowledged as a significant influence factor related to PTB [19,28,29].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The association between extreme temperature and pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005–2016: a mixed method evaluation

Chen¹,

Lu²,

Zhang³

et al. 2021

BMC Infect Dis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background The effects of extreme temperature on infectious diseases are complex and far-reaching. There are few studies to access the relationship of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) with extreme temperature. The study aimed to identify whether there was association between extreme temperature and the reported morbidity of PTB in Shandong Province, China, from 2005 to 2016. Methods A generalized additive model (GAM) was firstly conducted to evaluate the relationship between daily reported incidence rate of PTB and extreme temperature events in the prefecture-level cities. Then, the effect estimates were pooled using meta-analysis at the provincial level. The fixed-effect model or random-effect model was selected based on the result of heterogeneity test. Results Among the 446,016 PTB reported cases, the majority of reported cases occurred in spring. The higher reported incidence rate areas were located in Liaocheng, Taian, Linyi and Heze. Extreme low temperature had an impact on the reported incidence of PTB in only one prefecture-level city, i.e., Binzhou (RR = 0.903, 95% CI: 0.817–0.999). While, extreme high temperature was found to have a positive effect on reported morbidity of PTB in Binzhou (RR = 0.924, 95% CI: 0.856–0.997) and Weihai (RR = 0.910, 95% CI: 0.843–0.982). Meta-analysis showed that extreme high temperature was associated with a decreased risk of PTB (RR = 0.982, 95% CI: 0.966–0.998). However, extreme low temperature was no relationship with the reported incidence of PTB. Conclusion Our findings are suggested that extreme high temperature has significantly decreased the risk of PTB at the provincial levels. The findings have implications for developing strategies to response to climate change.

show abstract

“…Climate factors may affect the HFMD epidemic by in uencing the spectrum of pathogens. The relationship between HFMD and temperature or relative humidity have been widely reported in previous studies (Du et al, 2019;Qi et al, 2020;Xiao et al, 2017). Compared to the median temperature, the 91st percentile was estimated to have a risk ratio of 1.30 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.37) (Xiao et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…Compared to the median temperature, the 91st percentile was estimated to have a risk ratio of 1.30 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.37) (Xiao et al, 2017). The attributable HFMD cases for temperature and relative humidity were reported as 815,942 (95% CI: 796,361-835,888) and 291,759 (95% CI: 226,183-358,494) (Qi et al, 2020). However, the association between HFMD pathogen spectrum and climate factors remains not well understood.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Driven Trends in Pathogen Spectrum of HFMD

Du¹,

Huang

Lawrence

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Pathogen spectrum is vital during infectious disease epidemics. However, the role of pathogen spectrum during hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics and the major contributing factors remains unknown.Methods: HFMD cases from 2016 to 2018 in Guangzhou, China were collected. The relationship between HFMD cases and pathogen spectrum, as well as the association between pathogen spectrum and climate factors were studied using general linear models. We transformed the pathogen spectrum to the isometric log-ratio (ILR) components included in the model. Additionlly, vaccination rates were adjusted in the climate driven models.Results: We observed seasonal trends in HFMD cases, pathogen spectrum, and climate factors. The model regressing case numbers on pathogen spectrum revealed negative associations with both the ILRs of CAV16 (RR = 0.725, P<0.001) and EV71 (RR = 0.421, P<0.001). The model regressing pathogen spectrum on driven factors showed that the trends for EV71 proportions were inversely related to vaccination rate (%, β = -0.152, P=0.098) and temperature (°C , β = -0.065, P=0.004). Additionally, the trends for CVA16 proportions were inversely related to vaccination rate (%, β = -0.461, P=0.004) and temperature (°C , β = -0.068, P=0.031). The overall trends for pathogen spectrum showed that EV71 decreased significantly, while the trends for CVA16 increased annually.Conclusions: Our findings suggest a potential pathway for climate factors - pathogen spectrum - HFMD cases. Our study is practical and useful for targeted prevention and control, as well as provides environmental-based evidence.

show abstract

Quantifying the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) attributable to meteorological factors in East China: A time series modelling study

Cited by 25 publications

References 48 publications

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

The association between extreme temperature and pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005–2016: a mixed method evaluation

Climate-Driven Trends in Pathogen Spectrum of HFMD

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About