Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 2 Title: COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis Abstract COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily count of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei fromGeneralized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods.In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1°C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04°C to 8.2°C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout MainlandChina.

COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 if of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily count of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei fromAdditive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1°C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04°C to 8.2°C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.

BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become an emerging infectious disease in China in the last decade. There has been evidence that meteorological factors can influence the HFMD incidence, and understanding the mechanisms can help prevent and control HFMD.MethodsHFMD incidence data and meteorological data in Minhang District, Shanghai were obtained for the period between 2009 and 2015. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were utilized to investigate the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence after adjusting for potential confounders of long time trend, weekdays and holidays.ResultsThere was a non-linear relationship between temperature and HFMD incidence, the RR of 5th percentile compared to the median is 0.836 (95% CI: 0.671–1.042) and the RR of 95th percentile is 2.225 (95% CI: 1.774–2.792), and the effect of temperature varied across age groups. HFMD incidence increased with increasing average relative humidity (%) (RR = 1.009, 95% CI: 1.005–1.015) and wind speed (m/s) (RR = 1.197, 95% CI: 1.118–1.282), and with decreasing daily rainfall (mm) (RR = 0.992, 95% CI: 0.987–0.997) and sunshine hours (h) (RR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.951–0.980).ConclusionsThere were significant relationships between meteorological factors and childhood HFMD incidence in Minhang District, Shanghai. This information can help local health agencies develop strategies for the control and prevention of HFMD under specific climatic conditions.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0388-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.