Climate change: some likely multiple impacts in Southern Africa

Magadza, C. H. D.

doi:10.1016/0306-9192(94)90068-x

Cited by 63 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Recorded impacts of previous droughts on mammalian populations showed shifts in geographic ranges and shifts in community structure. Because the rates of response were slower than rates postulated to occur under global warming, and because the GCMs predicted higher temperatures than those found during the droughts, Magadza (1994) concluded that large mammals were likely to be threatened by climate change.…”

Section: African Wildlifementioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

et al. 2009

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The earth is in the midst of a pronounced warming trend and temperatures in Minnesota, USA, as elsewhere, are projected to increase. Northern Minnesota represents the southern edge to the circumpolar distribution of moose (Alces alces), a species intolerant of heat. Moose increase their metabolic rate to regulate their core body temperature as temperatures rise. We hypothesized that moose survival rates would be a function of the frequency and magnitude that ambient temperatures exceeded the upper critical temperature of moose. We compared annual and seasonal moose survival in northeastern Minnesota between 2002 and 2008 with a temperature metric. We found that models based on January temperatures above the critical threshold were inversely correlated with subsequent survival and explained >78% of variability in spring, fall, and annual survival. Models based on late‐spring temperatures also explained a high proportion of survival during the subsequent fall. A model based on warm‐season temperatures was important in explaining survival during the subsequent winter. Our analyses suggest that temperatures may have a cumulative influence on survival. We expect that continuation or acceleration of current climate trends will result in decreased survival, a decrease in moose density, and ultimately, a retreat of moose northward from their current distribution.

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Section: African Wildlifementioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

et al. 2009

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“…Agronomic models are useful for understanding the biophysical responses as well as indicating various technological and adaptation options that would offset the negative effects of climate change and positively increase yields. Studies that applied crop simulation modeling to estimate CC impacts on African agriculture include: Muchena (1994), Magadza (1994), Makadho (1996) Using results from agronomic models, economic impacts such as changes in area allocations, output supply and resulting changes in prices by crop and region are then estimated. The economic component of these models attempts to optimize consumer and producer welfare subject to climatic and other factors (Easterling et al, 1993;Darwin et al, 1994;Chang, 2002; Kumar and Parikh, 2001;Iglesias et al 1999;Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994).…”

Section: Observed Climate Change Patterns and Impacts On African Agrimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Agronomic models are useful for understanding the biophysical responses as well as indicating various technological and adaptation options that would offset the negative effects of climate change and positively increase yields. Studies that applied crop simulation modeling to estimate CC impacts on African agriculture include: Muchena (1994), Magadza (1994), Makadho (1996), Schulze et al (1993) and Du Toit et al (2002. A study by Mendelsohn et al (2000b) made an attempt to assess likely impacts of CC on African agriculture but relied on experimental data and models from the US.…”

Section: Observed Climate Change Patterns and Impacts On African Agrimentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector Performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda

Hassan

2010

Journal of African Economies

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The paper analyzed how climate change (CC) has shaped African agriculture in the past and how it might impact on African farm economies in the future and what adaptation strategies African farmers have adopted to cope with these changes. The analyses covered all key farming systems and agro-climates of Africa in 11 countries in which data was collected from over 10,000 farm household surveys. Results provided evidence that African agriculture and the welfare of its rural population are vulnerable to CC. The highest risk of future CC damages is associated with specialized crop and livestock farming (mono systems) particularly under dryland conditions in arid and semi-arid regions. This indicates how difficult it is to achieve an African green revolution under the current high reliance on dryland systems (more than 95% of the land) given predicted harsh future climates (warmer and dryer projections) for most of the dryland areas in PreambleNo doubt our level of awareness and understanding of the climate change (CC) phenomena and their impacts on our planet earth and its inhabitants have significantly improved over the past two decades. There has also been growing attention to and concerns about the consequences of climate change among almost all governments in the world. We remain however with some key uncertainties and gaps of knowledge associated with the complex dynamics between CC, its anthropogenic (human activity) drivers and life on earth including human wellbeing presenting major challenges to present day science and policy making. This is particularly the case in developing countries where efforts and investment levels in scientific research and action programs to better understand and respond to CC continue to be low and the capacity to survive CC vagaries and take advantage of its potential benefits remains consequently very weak.Africa and especially its farming communities and rural population stand out as one clear case of very high vulnerability to CC and its variance.The Synthesis Report of the forth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains how hard it is to find evidence of negative consequences of CC on the world agricultural productivity in aggregate agricultural statistics. One reason is the positive gains from global warming observed in the temperate regions (e.g. North America and Europe) due to reduced risk of frost and longer growing season duration.The other important reason is the fact that world agriculture in general but particularly in temperate regions had witnessed noticeable increases in productivity of most crops as a result of major technological advances (breeding and improved fertility and pest and disease management) (IPCC, 2007 (IPCC, 2007a). This is due to the fact that African economies and the livelihoods of its population are highly dependant on agriculture which is mainly practiced in already harsh climatic conditions (e.g. high temperature, marginal environments, and considerable water stress). It is also important to note tha...

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“…For instance Muchena (1994) and Magadza (1994) showed that a 2ºC rise in ambient temperature and a rise of mean temperature by 4ºC significantly lowered yields. In another study, Makadho (1996) assessed the potential effects of climate change on corn, using a Global Circulation Model (GCM) and the dynamic crop growth model CERES-maize, and the results indicated that maize production was expected to significantly decrease by approximately 11-17%, under conditions of both irrigation and non-irrigation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe : a ricardian approach

Mano¹,

Nhemachena²

2007

Policy Research Working Papers

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This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressed against various climate, soil, hydrological and socio-economic variables to help determine the factors that influence variability in net farm revenues. The study is based on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farming households interviewed across the country.The empirical results show that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenues in Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, the study also analyzes the effects on dryland farms and farms with irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farm revenues are affected negatively by increases in temperature and positively by increases in precipitation. The results from sensitivity analysis suggest that agricultural production in Zimbabwe's smallholder farming system is significantly constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results show that the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farming compared to farms with irrigation. The results show that farms with irrigation are more resistant This paper-a product of the Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to mainstream climate change research. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Pauline Kokila, room MC3-446, telephone 202-473-3716, fax 202-522-1151, email An overview of farmer adaptation to changing climate indicates that farmers are already using some adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting, growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates, and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against further anticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policy message from the empirical findings is that there is a need to provide adequate extension information services to ensure that farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfall patterns in the forthcoming season so that they make well-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policies that increase farmer training and access to credit and aid facilities and help farmers acquire livestock and other important farm assets can help improve net farm performance. Ensuring the availability and accessibility of fertilizers and crop seeds before the onset of the next cropping season can also significantly improve net farm performance across households. rtmano@mweb.co.zw nhemachenacharles@yahoo.co.uk This paper was funded by the GEF and the World Bank. It is part of a larger study on the effect of climate change on agriculture in Africa, managed by the World Bank and coordinated by the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria, South Africa. The authors are grateful to CEEPA for excellence in coordinating Pan African projects of this magnitude; to Dr James Benhin for academic leadership and mentori...

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Climate change: some likely multiple impacts in Southern Africa

Cited by 63 publications

References 7 publications

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector Performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda

Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe : a ricardian approach

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