Article 2 ͉ UNFCCC ͉ climate change impacts A rticle 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that ''would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.'' The UNFCCC also highlights 3 broad metrics with which decision-makers are to assess the pace of progress toward this goal: allow ''ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,'' ensure that ''food production is not threatened,'' and enable ''economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.'' In an effort to provide some insight into impacts that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 ''reasons for concern'' (RFCs) in (1). Each RFC categorizes impacts of a similar type, providing a set of metrics reflecting severity of risk. Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the ''burning embers diagram''; the image was also included in the Summary for Policy Makers of the contribution of Working Group II to the TAR and highlighted in the Synthesis Report.In presenting the ''embers'' in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor, as they noted, did they conclude what level of impact or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policyprescriptive. The ''embers'' were designed primarily to communicate the associations of impacts with increases in GMT and facilitate examination of the underlying evidence for use by decision-makers contemplating responses to these concerns.The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) states that ''the 'reasons for concern' identified in the TAR remain a viable framework for assessing key vulnerabilities'' (2). In this article, we revise sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT, based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001.* Furthermore, our judgments are supported by a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years, † as well as a more careful articulation of the criteria by which any specific vulnerability can be labeled ''key,'' and thus contribute to a reason for concern (3). ‡ Section 1 defines and reviews the RFCs and ''burning embers'' figure as presented in the IPCC TAR. Section 2 presents the 1 To whom correspondence may be addressed. E-mail: jsmith@stratusconsulting.com or shs@stanford.edu. *These judgments were vetted by 3 rounds of IPCC review and were approved in the Summary for Policymakers of both the AR4 Working Group 2 and Synthesis Reports by the IPCC Plenary. † Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socioeconomic systems are susceptible to and unable to cope with adve...

Lake Kariba, still the largest reservoir in the world by volume, is 60 years old. It has undergone changes in its thermal properties, associated with global warming, which reflect in turn on its limnology. These changes include a shallower eipilimnion, higher heat content and increased tropicality to near equatorial status. The role of Lake Kariba with regard to its energy characteristics is discussed in light of global warming findings. The lake's water residence time has increased from 3.7 years to %5.7 years, attributable to a reduced inflow from the Zambezi River. The phytoplankton communities have changed towards a cyanophyceae-dominated community, leading to a decline in entomostracan zooplankton, and a near collapse of the planktivorous Limnothrissa miodon fishery. Prolonged use of pesticides to control Glossina has led to measurable ecosystem level impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic biota. The impacts of the forced relocation of the Tonga people were still evident during this study. Siltation from resettlement areas has led to the loss of habitat and biodiversity in the inflowing streams to the lake. Unplanned shoreline development in the early history of the lake poses health problems. It is projected that global warming will cause the lake temperature to rise by %4°C by the end of the century. Higher temperatures will be accompanied by windier conditions, thereby enhancing the risks from storms on the lake. The appropriateness of administrative structures intended to manage the Zambezi River Basin environment also is discussed herein. It is concluded that the management protocol is institutionally a non-inclusive process lacking the capacity to involve other stakeholders in managing the lake's resources, and even less so in the integrated management of the basin.

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Lake Chivero in Zimbabwe was shown to be hypereutrophic. Historical data showed that the eutrophication process had been arrested in the late 1970s. However, a combination of poor planning, multiplicity of jurisdiction, mismatch between rate of urbanization and waste management investment, recent changes in the local climate and a permissive, immature political system that called for no public accountability resulted in environmental management breakdown leading to hypereutrophication of the lake. The case of Lake Chivero is presented as an example of a wider global issue regarding the status of environmental management in competition with other priorities in emerging democracies.

Temporary rivers within the NyaodzaGachegache subcatchment in northwestern Zimbabwe were investigated to examine the role of flow permanence and habitat structure on macroinvertebrate community composition. Macroinvertebrate communities of intermittent and ephemeral rivers displayed significant differences in the number of taxa, macroinvertebrate abundance, Shannon and Simpson diversity indices and in size class structure. Intermittent sites were characterised by higher numbers of taxa, diversity and Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera richness compared to ephemeral sites. The fauna of ephemeral sites was dominated by a single taxon (Afrobaetodes) (Ephemeroptera, Baetidae) whilst larger sized taxa (e.g. Elassoneuria (Ephemeroptera, Oligoneuriidae), Dicentroptilum (Ephemeroptera, Baetidae), Aethaloptera (Trichoptera, Hydropsychidae), Pseudagrion (Odonata, Coenagrionidae) and Tholymis (Odonata, Libellulidae) were exclusively restricted to intermittent sites. Clear differences were observed between sand, gravel, cobble and vegetation habitats. Vegetation and cobbles supported distinct communities, with some taxa exclusively restricted either to vegetation (e.g. Pseudagrion, Leptocerina (Trichoptera, Leptoceridae), Cloeon (Ephemeroptera, Baetidae), Afronurus (Ephemeroptera, Heptageniidae) and Povilla (Ephemeroptera, Polymitarcidae) or cobble (e.g. Aethaloptera and Dicentroptilum) habitats. In terms of ensuring optimum diversity within the subcatchment, we consider conservation of critical habitats (cobbles and vegetation) and maintenance of natural flows as the appropriate management actions.