Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immediately. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.

This study investigated perceptions of rural communities on climate change and its impacts on livelihoods. The research was conducted in the semi-arid Hwange district in Matebelel and North province of Zimbabwe. The perceptions were compared with empirical evidence from climatic studies on trends on temperature and rainfall, and impacts on livelihoods in the country and region. The findings from the current study are generally in agreement with those of other studies that indicate changes in the climate, especially in terms of rainfall. This largely applies to short-term periods; however, for long-term periods it is difficult to accurately relate rural community perceptions to changes in rainfall over time. Despite perceived changes and impacts of climate change on local livelihood activities, mainly agriculture, there are multiple stressors that the communities face which also affect their livelihoods. Further evidence-based research is required to disentangle climate change impacts on livelihoods, including livelihood impacts arising from interactions of climate and non-climatic factors.

This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressed against various climate, soil, hydrological and socio-economic variables to help determine the factors that influence variability in net farm revenues. The study is based on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farming households interviewed across the country.The empirical results show that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenues in Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, the study also analyzes the effects on dryland farms and farms with irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farm revenues are affected negatively by increases in temperature and positively by increases in precipitation. The results from sensitivity analysis suggest that agricultural production in Zimbabwe's smallholder farming system is significantly constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results show that the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farming compared to farms with irrigation. The results show that farms with irrigation are more resistant This paper-a product of the Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to mainstream climate change research. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Pauline Kokila, room MC3-446, telephone 202-473-3716, fax 202-522-1151, email An overview of farmer adaptation to changing climate indicates that farmers are already using some adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting, growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates, and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against further anticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policy message from the empirical findings is that there is a need to provide adequate extension information services to ensure that farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfall patterns in the forthcoming season so that they make well-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policies that increase farmer training and access to credit and aid facilities and help farmers acquire livestock and other important farm assets can help improve net farm performance. Ensuring the availability and accessibility of fertilizers and crop seeds before the onset of the next cropping season can also significantly improve net farm performance across households. rtmano@mweb.co.zw nhemachenacharles@yahoo.co.uk This paper was funded by the GEF and the World Bank. It is part of a larger study on the effect of climate change on agriculture in Africa, managed by the World Bank and coordinated by the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria, South Africa. The authors are grateful to CEEPA for excellence in coordinating Pan African projects of this magnitude; to Dr James Benhin for academic leadership and mentori...

Viability differences in smallholder dairy farming are a result of differences in access to markets and services. It is hypothesized that innovations that improve productivity and market linkages also improve returns and viability. The viability of smallholder dairying in Wedza was characterised by interviewing 52 households using semi-structured questionnaires. Information on demographics, production, marketing, livestock numbers, assets and constraints was obtained. Farmers were resource-constrained with differences in access to resources. The highly resourced farmers had higher milk output and numbers of livestock. Almost 40 % of the households were female-headed, and these dominated the poor category. Household sizes ranged from 4 to 13 persons. Milk off-take was low (3.7 ± 0.53 l/cow/day), due to various constraints. Only rich farmers had viable enterprises in purely financial terms. Per litre cost of milk was more than selling price (US$0.96) for most farmers except the relatively rich. Operating ratios were 1.7, 0.6, 1.4 and 1.1 for the poor, rich, sub-centre and milk collection centre farmers, respectively. This means incomes from the dairy activities did not cover costs. Sensitivity analysis indicated that increases in total variable costs and labour reduced returns. Milk production and viability were influenced by access to resources and markets.

The study analysed climate change adaptation for rural communities co-dependent on agriculture and the tourism industry in marginal farming areas in Hwange District, located in the north-west of Zimbabwe. The study was based on primary data collected from a cross-sectional household survey, key informant interviews and focus group discussion with rural communities. The results indicate that most of the respondents reported that most of their adaptation efforts to address the impacts of climate change and other stressors are primarily focused on agricultural crop activities. Deploying appropriate climate sensitive technologies and marketing innovations to make rural agriculture work better with climate change; is one possibility not yet fully exploited. Better access to climate change information and screening of appropriate technologies for climate change adaptation beyond seasonal climate adaptation and provision of technical and market incentives for farmers to invest in climate change compliant technologies should become the focus of African governments for semi-arid regions most vulnerable to climate change risk.