Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector Performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda

Abstract

The paper analyzed how climate change (CC) has shaped African agriculture in the past and how it might impact on African farm economies in the future and what adaptation strategies African farmers have adopted to cope with these changes. The analyses covered all key farming systems and agro-climates of Africa in 11 countries in which data was collected from over 10,000 farm household surveys. Results provided evidence that African agriculture and the welfare of its rural population are vulnerable to CC. The highest risk of future CC damages is associated with specialized crop and livestock farming (mono systems) particularly under dryland conditions in arid and semi-arid regions. This indicates how difficult it is to achieve an African green revolution under the current high reliance on dryland systems (more than 95% of the land) given predicted harsh future climates (warmer and dryer projections) for most of the dryland areas in PreambleNo doubt our level of awareness and understanding of the climate change (CC) phenomena and their impacts on our planet earth and its inhabitants have significantly improved over the past two decades. There has also been growing attention to and concerns about the consequences of climate change among almost all governments in the world. We remain however with some key uncertainties and gaps of knowledge associated with the complex dynamics between CC, its anthropogenic (human activity) drivers and life on earth including human wellbeing presenting major challenges to present day science and policy making. This is particularly the case in developing countries where efforts and investment levels in scientific research and action programs to better understand and respond to CC continue to be low and the capacity to survive CC vagaries and take advantage of its potential benefits remains consequently very weak.Africa and especially its farming communities and rural population stand out as one clear case of very high vulnerability to CC and its variance.The Synthesis Report of the forth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains how hard it is to find evidence of negative consequences of CC on the world agricultural productivity in aggregate agricultural statistics. One reason is the positive gains from global warming observed in the temperate regions (e.g. North America and Europe) due to reduced risk of frost and longer growing season duration.The other important reason is the fact that world agriculture in general but particularly in temperate regions had witnessed noticeable increases in productivity of most crops as a result of major technological advances (breeding and improved fertility and pest and disease management) (IPCC, 2007 (IPCC, 2007a). This is due to the fact that African economies and the livelihoods of its population are highly dependant on agriculture which is mainly practiced in already harsh climatic conditions (e.g. high temperature, marginal environments, and considerable water stress). It is also important to note tha...

The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector. A non-linear agricultural supply model

“…changing crop varieties) on farm net revenues. At larger geographical scale (11 countries in Africa, with 10 000 farm household surveys) Hassan (2010) demonstrates that African agriculture and the related welfare are vulnerable to climate change, in particular for what concerns crop and livestock farming in dry lands, while Dono et al (2013) observed that the most important economic impacts are derived from yield instability. …”

Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture

“…S3) What kinds of public policy actions enable transformational shifts of cropping systems among large numbers of farmers? Large-scale empirical evidence on barriers to adaptation emphasizes the importance of tailored extension, information and financial services 13,22 .Shifts in staple crops will require transformation not only among farming communities but also along value chains and among consumers; a preparatory phase could usefully provide incentives for development of new processing and storage facilities, food and nutrition standards, consumer education and recipes, government procurement strategies, and piloting of markets for by-products. While policy options are myriad (e.g.…”

“…refs. 13,[22][23][24][25] ), the key to the preparatory phase will be to create a flexible enabling environment for selfdirected change among farmers, consumers and value chain participants in response to climatic changes, situated within the wider context of rapid demographic and economic change 3,5,9 .This analysis, like many others, operates in a context of high uncertainty 9 . Our estimates of transformational adaptation are based on simulations of a single crop suitability model and are probably conservative owing to projected changes in climate extremes, pests and diseases, soil, trade and socio-economic constraints not considered here, and the fact that threshold exceedance may happen after 2100.…”

An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin

“…The Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa provides a problem area suitable for this type of study both because of the hydrologic and agricultural importance for the people who live in the area (World Bank 2010;Hassan 2010;Collier et al 2008), i.e., the region is vulnerable to changes in climate, and due to previous studies concluding that the impact of climate change will likely be significant (Arora and Boer 2001;de Wit and Stankiewicz 2006;Lobell et al 2008;World Bank 2010). IPCC (2001) documents earlier work on the Zambezi, where these studies claim the basin will experience the greatest decrease in runoff as compared to the rest of Africa (e.g., Arnell 1999).…”