China’s soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

Wang, Yunshi; Teter, Jacob; Sperling, Daniel

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.020

Cited by 84 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…During the period under the study, the vehicle stock projections based on the medium-, and high-growth scenarios in this study are also similar to those obtained under assumptions of high-growth in Huo et al [24], but lower than that in Wu et al [15]. The projected results obtained in this study are lower than those obtained by Wang et al [27] across all three growth scenarios.…”

Section: The Energy Demand Of Road Vehiclescontrasting

confidence: 55%

“…As Wang et al [27] note, the first major challenge in forecasting vehicle populations using the GDP approach is the accuracy of the GDP forecasts themselves. The latest reports show that growth in China is set to slow in the post-industrial era at around 2020 [28,29] because of a "middle-income trap" referred by World Bank [30] or the characteristics of the industrialization process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

Zhang

2014

Energies

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This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP)-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China's vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014-2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy OPEN ACCESSEnergies 2014, 7 7455 consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

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Section: The Energy Demand Of Road Vehiclescontrasting

confidence: 55%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

Zhang

2014

Energies

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“…The assumptions of Huo et al [14] on the Chinese annual average GDP growth were overly pessimistic, resulting in lower vehicle ownership projections. However, Wang et al [40] generated a much higher vehicle ownership result than our results from 2010 to 2024. They assumed and mapped a higher GDP growth onto China based on historical growth patterns of a set of countries with comparable growth dynamics; however, they ignored the particularities of China (e.g., the low levels of Chinese per capita GDP and vehicle ownership per 1000 people) and that vehicle stock conforms to the general Gompertz S-shape curve.…”

Section: Vehicle Ownership Projection In Chinacontrasting

confidence: 54%

Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050

Zhao

2014

Sustainability

122

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This paper presents the Gompertz function of per capita GDP and vehicle stock to forecast the vehicle ownership of China through to 2050 against a background of increasing energy use and CO 2 emissions associated with the potential demands of on-road vehicles. We forecast the level of vehicle stock in China based on the extant patterns of vehicle development in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, Europe, the United States and Japan. The results show that the OECD pattern and European pattern are more suitable for describing China's vehicle stock growth when compared with Japanese and U.S. patterns. The study finds that China's vehicle stock has developed as an S-shaped curve. During the forecast period, the inflection point of the increasing curve appears around the year 2030, with the annual growth of vehicle ownership increasing from 6.13% to 9.50% in the prior period prior and subsequently dropping to 0.45% in 2050. Based on the sensitivity analysis and robustness check, the impact of different Gompertz curve parameters and GDP growth rates on vehicle stock projection are analyzed.

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“…19 In 2022, China's vehicle population might reach 419 million. 20 Such a rapid increase is likely to reduce the need for "active transport" and contribute to the development of greater prevalence of obesity.…”

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confidence: 99%

Motorized Transportation, Social Status, and Adiposity

Qin

Stolk

Corpeleijn

2012

American Journal of Preventive Medicine

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Background: Increased dependence on motorized transportation may contribute to obesity.Countries in rapid socioeconomic transitions, such as China, provide an opportunity to investigate such an association.Purpose: The aim of the study was to examine the hypotheses that increased dependence on motorized transportation is related to adiposity and that this effect will be more pronounced in adults with high SES or those who live in urban regions. Methods:Data from the longitudinal China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted from 1997 to 2006 (nϭ3853, aged 18 -55 years at baseline, 52% women, ϳ7.8 years' follow-up) were used to examine the association between motorized transportation (none, 1-5 years, Ͼ5 years) and changes in body weight and waist circumference (WC) by using multivariate regression. SES factors were obtained from questionnaires. Data were analyzed in 2010.Results: Use of motorized transportation for Ͼ5 years was related to ϳ1.2 kg greater weight gain (pϭ0.006) and ϳ1.0 cm larger WC gain (pϭ0.017) in men, when compared with the nonmotorized transportation group and adjusted for baseline age, anthropometry, dietary intake, and follow-up time. These changes were slightly more pronounced in men with higher income or from rural areas, but the difference was not signifıcant. In women, the tendency to have motorized transportation with weight gain was less pronounced (ϩ1.1 kg, pϭ0.008). Low education and high income were the most predominant factors. In 2006, motorized transportation was associated with a 1.3-fold higher OR for obesity (p trend ϭ0.054) and abdominal obesity (p trend ϭ0.047) in men, and a 2-fold higher OR of obesity in women (p trend Ͻ0.001).Conclusions: Motorized transportation was related to an increase in adiposity in the Chinese population, particularly in men. (Am J Prev Med 2012;43(1):1-10)

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China’s soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

Cited by 84 publications

References 8 publications

Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050

Motorized Transportation, Social Status, and Adiposity

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