Changes in precipitation with climate change

Abstract

There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1°C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmospheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid-to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate models and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmospheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Niño a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.

Effects of water stress on total biomass, tuber yield, harvest index and water use efficiency in Jerusalem artichoke

“…Temperature increase in certain seasons around the world is the result of global warming leading to increased rates of water evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing intensity and duration of drought (Trenberth, 2011). Drought is increasingly an important factor affecting crop production worldwide, and it also reduces tuber yield of Jerusalem artichoke (Conde et al, 1991;Losavio et al, 1997;Schittenhelm, 1999;Monti et al, 2005;Liu et al, 2012;Ruttanaprasert et al, 2014).…”

Development of a 0.5° global monthly raining day product from 1901 to 2010

“…Precipitation is critically important for sustaining life on land and is one of the most fundamental climate data records [Easterling et al, 2000;New et al, 2001;Held and Soden, 2006;Hartmann et al, 2013;Trenberth, 2011]. For this reason, long-term gridded data sets of monthly precipitation amount (P) over land have been developed based on station data by different groups [Legates and Willmott, 1990;Chen et al, 2002;Becker et al, 2013;Harris et al, 2013] for a variety of applications.…”

Analysis of Flood Risk Due to Sea Level Rise in the Menor Sea (Murcia, Spain)

“…This phenomenon, known as global warming, is due to changes in the atmospheric composition by human emissions [3,4]. The main impacts of climate change are the increase in global mean temperature [5], change in intensity and frequency in winds and waves [6], changes in precipitation regimes [7], and variation in mean sea level [8]. Recent global studies indicate a sustained rise since the late nineteenth century, with a change in this trend and even a certain acceleration in the rise for the second half of the twentieth century [1].…”