Analysis of Flood Risk Due to Sea Level Rise in the Menor Sea (Murcia, Spain)

Abstract

This article analyzes the coastal vulnerability and flood risk due to sea level rise in the Menor Sea, Murcia (Spain). The vulnerability has been estimated from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery using Remote Sensing techniques. The risk of coastal flooding was calculated based on various time scenarios (X 0 -current, X 1 -100 years, X 2 -500 years, X 3 -1000 years, X 4 -Storm, X 5 -Tsunami). Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing techniques were used to build a regional model to predict changes in the mean sea level for several future scenarios, showing susceptible areas to be flooded. We have included new parameters to the model such as swell, mareal range or neotectonic factors aiming to better adjust it to the local conditions. The results showed a high risk of flooding in the barrier beach and coastal areas of the Menor Sea, with a medium to very high degree of vulnerability for the most populated and touristic areas. The maximum and minimum expected increase of the water sheet for the 100 year scenarios ranged from +4.22 to +5.69 m. This methodology can establish sectors that need structural measures to minimize the impact of the sea level rise occurring due to natural tendency in the short or long term, as well as by extreme events such as storm surges or tsunamis. Furthermore, it can be used in other areas to assist land management decision makers to reduce or mitigate the vulnerability and risk presented against the rise of the sea level.

Long-Term GIS Analysis of Seaside Impacts Associated to Infrastructures and Urbanization and Spatial Correlation with Coastal Vulnerability in a Mediterranean Area

“…In addition, the main biological, chemical, or ecological approach of most of the existing studies in the area has traditionally focused on variables with little connection with the coastal vulnerability of the territory as impact factors (nitrates from agriculture, heavy metals from old mining areas, etc.). Therefore, except for a number of specific and segmented studies in the field of coastal hydrodynamics [68,69], sea level [70], or territorial anthropization [34,47] there was no analysis from the physical perspective of the coastal territory that allows a diagnosis of the global vulnerability in this area.…”

“…In fact, approaches in this territory have traditionally existed that lack a solid scientific basis; these have generated some social alarm about the impact of the risk of a sea level rise due to climate change (Figure 12). In complex environments such as this one, approaches with great scientific rigor, such as can be seen in Reference [70], may even be insufficient to assess coastal vulnerability at a comprehensive level, since it is also necessary to take into account the impacts and cross-links of other variables related to the anthropization processes of human activity and to develop detailed digital models of the terrain and urban plot able of simulating the physical reality at the local level. In this sense, possible lines of future research in this area for this territory to formulate more precise and segmented mitigation strategies could be carried out to deepen the study at the local level of certain elements whose performance was positive or negative depending on the context of analysis.…”

Detecting Areas Vulnerable to Sand Encroachment Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques in Nouakchott, Mauritania

“…These parameters are included in Equation 1to provide a vulnerability score ( Table 1). The ranking component is adjusted depending on the environmental factors of the area as observed in previous vulnerability assessments [13,45]. We employ map algebra in a GIS software (ESRI 2016.…”

Protecting Coastlines from Flooding in a Changing Climate: A Preliminary Experimental Study to Investigate a Sustainable Approach

“…In the last 140 years, scientific research has established that average sea levels have significantly increased [1][2][3], and this phenomenon is accelerating. This is a critical issue as even small increases can have devastating effects on coastal habitats [4][5][6][7].…”