Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia

Korhonen, Iikka; Nuutilainen, Riikka

doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.004

Cited by 15 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…See, for example,Vdovichenko and Voronina (2006),Korhonen and Nuutilainen (2017),and Esanov et al (2005).14 For more details, refer to Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary (2017).15 As described inTaylor (1993Taylor ( , 2001.…”

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confidence: 99%

Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy

Alekhina

Yoshino

2018

Eurasian Econ Rev

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This research investigates the interrelationship between the Russian Federation's main macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy and world oil prices using a vector autoregressive approach and monthly time-series data from January 1993 to December 2016. We selected the Russian Federation for this analysis because it is one of the largest oil exporting countries that is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its oil revenues account for a significant proportion of the country's total export and budget revenues. We assume that oil prices are exogenously given to this country, despite being a large oil-exporter, and explain the oil price transition mechanisms to the Russian Federation's economy from the export side and through the fiscal channel taking into account the monetary policy factor. The results suggest that the impact of the oil price fluctuations on the country's gross domestic product, consumer price index inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate was more significant between 2000 and 2016 than between 1993 and 1999. To estimate the monetary policy rule for the Russian Federation, we test the modified Taylor equation and associated Taylor rule, including the oil price gap, since the latter may have a significant impact on the key policy rate. The evidence suggests that the Taylor rule describes the post-financial crisis monetary policy of the Russian Federation relatively well.

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confidence: 99%

Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy

Alekhina

Yoshino

2018

Eurasian Econ Rev

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“…И хотя включение индекса финансового стресса позволило выделить кризисные периоды в режимах поведения ставки, тем не менее ни в одном режиме не выполняется принцип Тейлора. Оценке правила в России также посвящена работа (Korhonen, Nuutilainen, 2017), где авторы сначала оценивают правило Тейлора с лагами разрыва инфляции, выпуска, реального обменного курса, цен на нефть (т.е. используют backward-looking спецификацию) в период с начала 2004 г. по август 2017 г. Коэффициенты при разрыве инфляции и выпуска значимы, но не выполняется принцип Тейлора.…”

Section: обзор литературыunclassified

“…В работе ставится задача оценки параметров правила Тейлора на новой выборке инфляционного таргетирования, а также задача оценки влияния шоков ДКП на базе оцененного правила на показатели инфляции потребительских и промышленных товаров. Отличие данной работы от предшествующих работ (Esanov et al, 2005;Korhonen, Nuutilainen, 2017) состоит в получении оценок для правила Тейлора на новой выборке инфляционного таргетирования. Также мы оцениваем именно стандартную постановку правила Тейлора как в уравнении (1), в то время как в предшествующих работах (Дробышевский, Козловская, 2002; Вдовиченко, Воронина, 2004; Дробышевский и др., 2009; Федорова и др., 2016; Федорова, Лысенкова, 2013) авторы либо фокусируются на нелинейных вариантах правила Тейлора, либо исследуют правило монетарной политики с помощью VAR-моделей.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Taylor Rule in Russia in the Periodof Inflation Targeting

Лысенко¹,

Polbin²

2023

LEJ

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Since 2014, the Bank of Russia has switched to a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting. From that moment the key interest rate, that is, the interest rate of the interbankmarket, became the main instrument of monetary policy in Russia. At the same time, the question arises: does the policy of the Bank of Russia really contribute to stabilizing inflation? In otherwords, it is important for policy makers, as well as private economic agents, to understandwhether the rate changes sufficiently to stabilize the deviation of inflation from the target. Thus, the task is reduced to the study of the monetary policy rule: the Taylor rule in Russia duringthe period of inflation targeting. Estimates of the Taylor rule allow us to see the nature of both the systematic reaction of the regulator and the discretionary one. Thus, the task of the studyis to consider the systematic anddiscretionary reaction of the Bank of Russia in response to the deviation of inflation from the target and the output gap based on the Taylor rule. The work is also motivatedby the fact that, based on the results of recent research, the basic least squares method can be used to solve the problem. So, to analyze the systematic reaction of the regulator, we evaluate the standard formulation of the Taylor rule using OLS. To analyze the role of the discretionary component, we consider monetary policy shocks as innovations of the Taylor rule. Using the local projection methodology, we estimate the impulse responses of the inflation components of consumer and industrial goods to identified monetary shocks based on the Taylorrule. The results of the assessment indicate the implementation of the Taylor rule in Russia during the period of inflation targeting. The findings indicate an active stabilizing systematic reaction of the regulator in response to the deviation of inflation from the target. Estimates of impulse responses show a decrease in the inflation components of consumer and industrialgoods in response to the restraining shock of monetary policy.

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“…Calculations made by Russian scientists shown that increase in funding of the new economy in comparison with other sectors leads to GDP growth by 4.45 percentage points during 7 years in show that almost any monetary infusion into the real sector of economy leads to an increase in GDP due to significant demonetization of the Russian economy [5]. This situation is of particular interest for studying of the GDP growth sources in the modern structure of Russian macroeconomics, its priorities and "insider or outsider" position in the new world order.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Russian Economy’s Ability to Generate Profit

Смирнов¹,

Osipov²,

Gorbunova³

2019

Proceedings of the First International Volga Region Conference on Economics, Humanities and Sports (FICEHS 2019)

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Study subject is the ability of the Russian economy to generate profit. The aim of the work is to determine the key indicators affecting the ability of the Russian economy to generate profit. The study is based on a systematic approach using statistical, cluster, neural network and non-parametric analysis. The article explains the necessity for assessment of the Russian economy's ability to generate profit in the conditions of falling global trade rates and intensification of global competition and global economy transfer from total globalization policy to segmented American corporate governance. Scientific knowledge of system analysis as an aggregate of hierarchically ordered economic phenomena related to increase of economic growth rates, reduction of unemployment, general price level and interest rate, fine balance of state budget and trade balance, etc. became a methodological basis. As a result of analysis of an aggregate of retrospective and forecast economic indexes of Russia according to the data of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organization for economic cooperation and development there have been revealed its abilities to generate profit due to change of: GDP deflator, value added (services), employment (services), FDI stocks (imports and exports), imports of goods and commercial services, FDI flows (imports), consumer prices, public sector expenditures, growth rates of total reserves (including gold), productivity growth rates, trade of goods and unemployment rate. The main factors constraining profit generation are: low performance indicators of industry, services and agriculture, trade activity; weak dynamics of foreign direct investment; insufficient liberalization of the Russian market against the background of stable growth of the corruption perception index. The ability of the Russian economy to generate profits in relation to low efficiency of industry, services, agriculture, steady dependence of productivity growth from growth of GDP deflator, short-term increase in general reserves, lack of liberalization of the Russian market and growth of the corruption perception index would not allow to avoid deep fall during the global recession. CCSCONCEPTS • Ability of the Russian economy to generate profit → statistical, cluster, neural network and non-parametric analysis → data from the World Bank, the International monetary Fund, the Organization for economic cooperation and development→ the main factors constraining generation of profit → deep fall of the Russian economy during the global recession.

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Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia

Abstract: This study estimates whether the monetary policy rules of Bank of Russia have rules for Russia, concluding that a variant of the Taylor rule depicts Bank of Russia's reserved.

Cited by 15 publications

References 12 publications

Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy

Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy

Taylor Rule in Russia in the Periodof Inflation Targeting

Analysis of the Russian Economy’s Ability to Generate Profit

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