This research investigates the interrelationship between the Russian Federation's main macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy and world oil prices using a vector autoregressive approach and monthly time-series data from January 1993 to December 2016. We selected the Russian Federation for this analysis because it is one of the largest oil exporting countries that is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its oil revenues account for a significant proportion of the country's total export and budget revenues. We assume that oil prices are exogenously given to this country, despite being a large oil-exporter, and explain the oil price transition mechanisms to the Russian Federation's economy from the export side and through the fiscal channel taking into account the monetary policy factor. The results suggest that the impact of the oil price fluctuations on the country's gross domestic product, consumer price index inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate was more significant between 2000 and 2016 than between 1993 and 1999. To estimate the monetary policy rule for the Russian Federation, we test the modified Taylor equation and associated Taylor rule, including the oil price gap, since the latter may have a significant impact on the key policy rate. The evidence suggests that the Taylor rule describes the post-financial crisis monetary policy of the Russian Federation relatively well.
Over the past decades ASEAN countries have experienced rapid economic growth accompanied by a dramatic fall in poverty rates, but income inequality has not retreated. This research aims at identifying factors which could contribute to more equally distributed growth in ASEAN. To measure inclusive growth, we use a variable integrating per capita income growth and an equity index. A cross-country panel analysis of the impact of macro-structural factors on inclusive growth and its two components suggests that fiscal redistribution, female labor force participation, productivity growth, FDI inflows, digitalization, and savings significantly drive inclusive growth. A scenario analysis based on our econometric results suggests that the implementation of fiscal redistribution and labor market-oriented structural reforms could help significantly accelerate inclusive growth in ASEAN.
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