Be seeded or not be seeded? A study with Olympic judo athletes

Abstract

The main purpose of the present study was to calculate the probability—based on a Bayesian approach—to win a medal in the Olympic Games given the athlete is seeded and to verify if the number one ranked athlete has any advantage compared to other seeded athletes concerning his/her chances to be Olympic champion. For this, data from athletes who took part in the London 2012 and Rio 2016 Olympic Games were considered. For males the probability of seeded athletes to win a medal was 41.1% and 42.9%, while for females it was 35.7% and 44.6% at London 2012 and Rio 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the probability of athletes ranked as number one to become Olympic champion among the seeded athletes was 19.5% and 36.8% for males and 32.3% and 36.8% for females in London 2012 and Rio 2016, respectively. Based on these results the cost-benefit of investing human and financial resources to qualify an athletes among the top eight competitors and his/her exposure to competitions—resulting in technical-tactical analysis of the opponent and higher risk of injury—should be carefully analyzed when determining the competition calendar to each athlete.

Seeding and gold medal probability in wrestling: a 2016 Rio Olympic Games analysis

“…Our results indicated that the seeded wrestlers in the Rio Olympic Games had a high advantage of being an Olympic Champion. Conversely, the probability of winning a medal for male and female judo athletes (Guilheiro and Franchini, 2017) were lower than the probability of winning a medal for male and female wrestlers. Specifically, Guilheiro and Franchini (2017) have reported that the probability of seeded athletes to win a medal was 41.1% and 42.9% for male judo athletes and 35.7% and 44.6% for female judo athletes at London 2012 and Rio 2016, respectively.…”

“…Conversely, the probability of winning a medal for male and female judo athletes (Guilheiro and Franchini, 2017) were lower than the probability of winning a medal for male and female wrestlers. Specifically, Guilheiro and Franchini (2017) have reported that the probability of seeded athletes to win a medal was 41.1% and 42.9% for male judo athletes and 35.7% and 44.6% for female judo athletes at London 2012 and Rio 2016, respectively. Therefore, considering this difference, wrestlers will likely give more importance to the World Wrestling Championship organized 11 months before the Olympic Games to increase their chance to be Olympic champion or get an Olympic medal.…”

“…As a first step in the current study, the probability of winning the Olympic medals (P(M|C)) was calculated for seeded athletes using the Bayes theorem, in a similar way as conducted with judo athletes competing in London and Rio Olympics (Guilheiro and Franchini, 2017). Explanations of the variables used in this calculation and a sample calculation are given below.…”

“…Many countries have been investing millions of dollars in order to participate in the Olympics with more athletes and to achieve a better result (Guilheiro & Franchini, 2017;Rees et al, 2016). In wrestling, one of the oldest sports in Olympic history (Isik & Gumus, 2018), participating in the Olympic Games are very important for wrestlers.…”

40 anos da Pós-graduação da EEFE-USP: contribuições para o avanço do conhecimento em Treinamento Esportivo

“…Além destas potenciais aplicações, o conhecimento gerado a partir da análise técnica, tática e de estrutura temporal, juntamente com aquele oriundo de investigações sobre a demanda energética da luta, tem permitido a elaboração de processos de avaliação mais especí cos. Neste contexto, vale destacar o processo de avaliação física de atletas do boxe 105 , da esgrima 106 , do judô [107][108] -incluindo atletas paralímpicos 109 , do karatê [110][111][112][113][114] e do taekwondo [115][116] , com utilização de testes especí cos -inclusive com a elaboração de tabelas classi catórias [117][118] e análise discriminante entre diferentes testes 119 e/ou em situações especí cas das diferentes modalidades [120][121][122] . A compreensão de como treinam os atletas que participaram dos Jogos Olímpicos 123 , de quais competições participam durante o processo de quali cação para esta, com determinação da importância relativa quanto ao posicionamento em "rankings" internacionais [124][125][126] e do intervalo ideal entre estas competições para a maximização do desempenho 127 , permite melhor planejamento do processo de treinamento, além da elaboração de estudos com maior validade ecológica.…”